Stefan Kozlov #317United States22 – 1Yibing Wu #102China1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Kozlov's competitiveness on grass and Wu's occasional struggles to dominate suggest Kozlov will cover a +3.5 game handicap.

• Kozlov's last five losses: average margin of 4.6 games, but three were by 4 games or fewer.
• Wu's last five wins: average margin of 5.4 games, but against lower-ranked opponents; his wins over top-100 players were tighter (e.g., 7-5, 6-2 vs Giron).
• Kozlov's grass-court match practice and home advantage (USA) could keep the match close.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

The combination of Kozlov's recent three-set battles and Wu's tendency for close matches against quality opponents points to a match exceeding 21.5 games.

• Kozlov's last three matches averaged 22.3 games, with two going to three sets.
• Wu's last five completed matches averaged 22.6 games, with three of five exceeding 21.5 games.
• Both players have similar break point save rates (Kozlov 57.6%, Wu 60.1%) and convert rates (Kozlov 42.3%, Wu 41.3%), suggesting competitive games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Recent first-set trends for both players indicate a high likelihood of a closely contested opener exceeding 9.5 games.

• Kozlov's last three first sets: 7-6, 6-4, 5-7 (avg 10.3 games).
• Wu's last five first sets: 4-6, 6-7, 3-6, 7-5, 3-6 (avg 9.6 games).
• Both players have strong first-set win conversion rates, suggesting competitive opening sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Kozlov's higher double fault tendency on a surface that rewards aggressive serving could push the combined total over 5.5.

• Kozlov's double fault rate is 5.6% vs Wu's 3.1%, but Kozlov's higher rate could be exacerbated by grass-court pressure.
• In their H2H, Kozlov had 4 double faults in 17 games, projecting to ~6 over a full match.
• Kozlov averaged 3.0 double faults per match in his last two grass matches, while Wu averaged 2.0.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Grass-court conditions and Wu's superior ace rate make over 8.5 aces a reasonable expectation, though the low H2H ace count tempers confidence.

• Wu's ace rate is 5.6% vs Kozlov's 3.9%, but Wu's higher serve volume in longer matches could push the total up.
• In their H2H, they combined for only 3 aces in 17 games, but that was on indoor hard; grass typically yields more aces.
• Kozlov averaged 2.5 aces per match in his last two grass matches, while Wu averaged 3.0 in his last grass match (vs Choinski).