Nicolas Mejia #165Colombia22 – 1Santiago Rodriguez Taverna #384Argentina1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30

The read

Mejia's superior recent clay form (9-4 in 2026, local Bogota success) and higher ranking (165 vs 384) give him a clear edge, despite the H2H loss last year.

• Mejia is 9-4 on clay in 2026, including a recent Bogota Challenger title in Nov 2025 and a 6-3 6-2 win in the previous round here.
• Rodriguez Taverna is 12-16 on clay in 2026 and lost his last completed clay match 6-4 6-4 to Ambrogi (rank 320).
• Mejia holds a 154-67 career clay record (69.7%) vs Rodriguez Taverna's 281-197 (58.8%), with Mejia winning 85% of first sets on clay when victorious.
• H2H: Rodriguez Taverna won their only meeting 7-5 6-4 on clay in Apr 2025, but Mejia's form has improved significantly since then.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have been involved in matches averaging over 21.5 games recently, and their only H2H also exceeded this line, suggesting a competitive match.

• Mejia's last 5 completed matches averaged 21.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Rodriguez Taverna's last 5 completed matches averaged 22.6 games, with 4 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Their only H2H match had 22 games (7-5 6-4).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have been involved in extended first sets recently, and their only H2H first set went to 12 games, making over 9.5 likely.

• Mejia's last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Rodriguez Taverna's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Their H2H first set was 7-5 (12 games).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Second sets have been competitive for both players, with a slight lean toward over 9.5 based on recent averages.

• Mejia's last 5 second sets averaged 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Rodriguez Taverna's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Their H2H second set was 6-4 (10 games).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Mejia's tendency to start fast on clay (85% first-set win conversion) and Rodriguez Taverna's recent slow starts make Mejia the likely first-set winner.

• Mejia has won the first set in 7 of his last 10 matches, including his last two clay matches.
• Rodriguez Taverna has lost the first set in 4 of his last 6 completed matches.
• Mejia's first-set win conversion rate is 85% on clay, indicating strong starts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Both players have low ace rates and recent ace counts well below 8.5, making the under a strong play.

• Mejia averages 4.9% ace rate (career) and 4 aces in the H2H match.
• Rodriguez Taverna averages 4.0% ace rate (career) and 4 aces in the H2H match.
• Both players have low ace counts in recent matches: Mejia's last 5 matches averaged 3.2 aces, Rodriguez Taverna's last 5 averaged 2.8 aces.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The combined double fault averages sit right at the 5.5 line, with a slight lean toward over given Rodriguez Taverna's higher rate.

• Mejia has a 3.3% double fault rate (career) and averaged 2.4 double faults in his last 5 matches.
• Rodriguez Taverna has a 3.6% double fault rate (career) and averaged 3.2 double faults in his last 5 matches.
• Combined, their recent averages total 5.6 double faults per match.