Iryna Shymanovich vs Mary Stoiana: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.00
The read
Shymanovich's superior grass form and dominant H2H serve performance give her a moderate edge over Stoiana, who has less grass experience and a lower return points won rate.
- Shymanovich won the only H2H meeting 6-3 6-3 on clay in April 2025, with a dominant 74% win on first serve and 68% on second serve.
- Shymanovich has a 6-2 grass record in 2026, including a straight-set win in the previous round, while Stoiana is 7-3 on grass this year but lost her last grass match to Sawangkaew.
- Shymanovich's career tiebreak win rate is 61% and first-set win conversion is 88%, indicating strong clutch play.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIryna ShymanovichEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Stoiana's recent close losses and Shymanovich's occasional narrow wins indicate Stoiana can cover a +3.5 game handicap, especially given her higher ranking and competitive form.
- Stoiana's last 5 losses were by an average of 4.2 games, but 3 of those were by 3 games or fewer.
- Shymanovich's last 5 wins were by an average of 5.2 games, but 2 of those were by 3 games or fewer.
- The H2H match was a 6-3 6-3 win for Shymanovich, a 6-game margin, but Stoiana's improved ranking suggests a closer match.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMary Stoiana +3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Recent match data shows both players frequently engage in matches with over 20.5 total games, and their balanced serve/return profiles indicate a close contest likely to exceed this line.
- Shymanovich's last 5 matches averaged 21.6 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 20.5.
- Stoiana's last 5 matches averaged 22.2 total games, with 4 of 5 going over 20.5.
- Both players have similar serve/return stats, with break point conversion rates around 50%, suggesting competitive games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be tight given both players' solid serving and recent first-set game totals, though the low confidence reflects the variability in set lengths.
- Shymanovich's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Stoiana's last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 62%, making breaks less frequent.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been slightly shorter on average for both players, but the balanced matchup suggests a close set is possible, though confidence is low due to mixed recent data.
- Shymanovich's last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games, with 2 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Stoiana's last 5 second sets averaged 9.4 games, with 2 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Both players have similar second-serve win rates (around 47%), which could lead to more breaks in the second set.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Shymanovich's high first-set win conversion and recent first-set success on grass suggest she is likely to take the opening set against Stoiana, who has been slow to start in recent matches.
- Shymanovich has an 88% career first-set win conversion rate, showing she often starts strong.
- In her last 5 matches, Shymanovich won the first set in 3 of them, including a 6-3 set in her previous grass match.
- Stoiana lost the first set in 3 of her last 5 matches, including a 2-6 set on grass against Sawangkaew.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIryna ShymanovichEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Both players have low ace rates and rely on placement rather than power, making it unlikely they combine for more than 5 aces even on grass.
- Shymanovich's ace rate is 1.9% and Stoiana's is 2.0%, both very low.
- In their H2H match, Shymanovich had only 1 ace and Stoiana had 0 aces.
- Grass typically yields more aces, but neither player has a powerful serve; Shymanovich's first-serve percentage is 58% and Stoiana's is 63%.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Market price1.85Estimated chance65%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Iryna Shymanovich #215Belarus1Mary Stoiana #130United States2

Player Profiles

Iryna Shymanovich

Mary Stoiana

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 5.5

Mary Stoiana +3.5

Over 20.5

Iryna Shymanovich

Iryna Shymanovich

Iryna Shymanovich 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Iryna Shymanovich

Mary Stoiana