Facundo Mena #354Argentina22 – 1Tristan Mccormick #604United States1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29

The read

Mena's superior clay-court pedigree and recent form against stronger opposition give him a clear edge, despite McCormick's lighter first-round mileage.

• Mena has a 17-10 clay record in 2026 vs. McCormick's 3-3, showing stronger surface fit.
• Mena's career clay win percentage is 456-? (over 70% of his matches), while McCormick's is 69-? (around 50%).
• Mena's recent form: 8-7 in last 15, but 4-1 in last 5 on clay, including a win over a top-200 player.
• McCormick's last 5 matches: 3-2, but all wins against unranked or low-ranked opponents; lost to Quinn Vandecasteele (rank 455) in straight sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches trend toward longer contests, and their competitive stats suggest a close battle with over 21.5 games.

• Mena's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games, with 4 of 5 going over 21.5.
• McCormick's last 5 matches averaged 22.4 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Both players have a high rate of three-set matches recently: Mena 4 of last 10, McCormick 5 of last 10.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent first sets have been tightly contested, making over 9.5 games in the first set a strong possibility.

• Mena's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
• McCormick's last 5 first sets averaged 10.4 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Both players have a high rate of competitive first sets, often reaching 10+ games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Given the competitive nature of their matches, the second set is likely to be close as well, with a fair chance of exceeding 9.5 games.

• Mena's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• McCormick's last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Second sets in their matches tend to be competitive, especially when the first set is close.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Both players have relatively high double fault rates, making over 5.5 total double faults a likely outcome.

• Mena's double fault rate is 4.0% career, averaging ~3-4 per match.
• McCormick's double fault rate is 5.6% career, averaging ~4-5 per match.
• Combined, they average around 7-9 double faults per match.