Katrina Scott #259United States00 – 2Mary Stoiana #130United States2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15

The read

Stoiana's strong recent grass-court form and higher-quality wins give her a clear edge over Scott, who lacks grass match play and has struggled against lower-ranked opponents.

• Stoiana has a 6-3 grass record in 2026, including a semifinal at Ilkley and wins over top-200 opponents.
• Scott has no grass wins in 2026 and a career 3-3 grass record, with her last grass match in 2023.
• Stoiana's recent form (last 5 matches: 4-1) includes wins over Lulu Sun (rank 112) and Kayla Day (137), while Scott's last 5 includes losses to Broadus (468) and Brantmeier (528).
• Stoiana's return points won (47%) and break point conversion (50%) are superior to Scott's (45% and 46%), critical on grass.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Given Stoiana's efficient wins and Scott's vulnerability, the match is likely to be decided in straight sets with a moderate game total.

• Stoiana's last 5 wins on grass averaged 19.6 games per match.
• Scott's recent losses have been one-sided, with an average of 16.5 games in her last 4 defeats.
• Stoiana's straight-set wins often finish under 21.5 games (e.g., 6-3 6-4, 6-2 6-3).
• Scott's serve stats (62% first serve, 48% second serve win) may lead to quick breaks on grass.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Stoiana's ability to win by comfortable margins against similar or better opponents makes a -3.5 game handicap plausible.

• Stoiana's average game margin in her last 5 wins is +5.2 games.
• Scott's average game margin in her last 5 losses is -6.4 games.
• Stoiana's break point conversion (50%) and Scott's break point save rate (55.7%) suggest Stoiana can cover the handicap.
• On grass, Stoiana's superior return game (47% return points won) should create multiple break opportunities.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22

The read

Stoiana's trend of winning first sets and Scott's recent slow starts make Stoiana the likely set 1 winner.

• Stoiana has won the first set in 4 of her last 5 matches, including against top-200 players.
• Scott has lost the first set in 3 of her last 5 matches, including against lower-ranked opponents.
• Stoiana's first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, indicating strong starts.
• On grass, Stoiana's serve and return stats suggest she can pressure Scott early.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.33

The read

The combination of Stoiana's straight-set trend and Scott's poor record in tight matches supports under 2.5 sets.

• Stoiana's last 5 wins: 4 in straight sets.
• Scott's last 5 losses: 4 in straight sets.
• Stoiana's first-set win conversion (87%) and Scott's deciding set win rate (41%) point to a two-set match.
• Grass-court matches often finish quicker, and Stoiana's form suggests she can close out efficiently.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Stoiana's dominance in straight sets and Scott's inability to force deciders make a 2-0 win for Stoiana the most probable set outcome.

• Stoiana has won 6 of her last 8 matches in straight sets.
• Scott has lost 5 of her last 7 matches in straight sets.
• Stoiana's first-set win rate (87% conversion) and Scott's low comeback rate (15%) favor a straight-set outcome.
• On grass, Stoiana's serve and return edge reduces the likelihood of a third set.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Stoiana's ability to win sets comfortably and Scott's struggles suggest a tiebreak is unlikely.

• Stoiana's last 5 matches: 0 tiebreaks.
• Scott's last 5 matches: 1 tiebreak.
• Stoiana's first-set win rate (87%) and Scott's low tiebreak win rate (56%) reduce tiebreak likelihood.
• Grass-court matches often feature breaks, but Stoiana's dominance may prevent close sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace rates, making under 6.5 aces likely even on grass.

• Stoiana's ace rate is 2% (career), averaging ~1.5 aces per match.
• Scott's ace rate is 4.6% (career), averaging ~3 aces per match.
• Combined, their ace rates suggest a total around 4-5 aces in a typical two-set match.
• Grass can increase aces, but neither player is a big server; Stoiana's low ace count is consistent.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players averaging around 3 double faults per match, the total is likely to surpass 7.5.

• Stoiana's double fault rate is 3.9% (career), averaging ~3 per match.
• Scott's double fault rate is 3.3% (career), averaging ~2.5 per match.
• In a two-set match, combined double faults often exceed 7.5 given their rates.
• Grass-court pressure on second serves can increase double faults.