Braunschweig - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Jan Choinski #100United Kingdom2Max Hans Rehberg #510Germany1

Sets 2-6 · 7-5 · 6-4Wed 8 Jul 2026, 15:42 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJan Choinski · 410 places

Jan Choinski

United Kingdom

Reached a career-high No. 100 on 29 June 2026. ATP's bio notes he was outside the top 500 in September 2022 before climbing back, and he won the 2026 Zagreb Challenger on clay.

Current ranking: #100
Peak ranking: #100 · 2026
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Max Hans Rehberg

Germany

Career-high No. 230 came on 31 March 2025. The structured feed provided for this match lists him at No. 510, so he arrives well below that earlier peak.

Current ranking: #510
Peak ranking: #230 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Jul 2026, 22:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Jan Choinski’s superior ranking, dominant 6-1, 6-1 H2H win on clay, and strong form against top-100 players make him a heavy favorite over Max Hans Rehberg.

Back Choinski to win and cover the straight-sets market, with the total games likely staying under 21.5 given his serve efficiency and Rehberg’s struggles against higher-quality opposition.

Context

Choinski achieved his career-high ranking of No. 100 on 29 June 2026, just before this tournament.
- He is the No. 4 seed in Braunschweig, indicating his status as one of the top players in the draw.
- His recent wins include top-100 opponents Vit Kopriva (No. 64) and Marcos Giron (No. 92), showing he can beat higher-quality players.
In his last 15 matches, Rehberg’s wins came against opponents with an average ranking around 350, while his losses were to players like Carballes Baena (No. 163) and Moeller (No. 372).
- He lost in straight sets to Carballes Baena and Moeller on clay, failing to win more than four games in any set.
- His only top-100 win in this period was against Zachary Svajda (No. 66) on hard court, not clay.
In their sole H2H match on clay in September 2024, Choinski won 6-1, 6-1.
- Choinski won 80% of first-serve points and 79% of second-serve points, while Rehberg won only 50% and 33% respectively.
- Choinski converted 45% of break points and won 59% of return points, indicating he could easily break Rehberg’s serve.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Choinski's superior ranking, dominant H2H, and stronger recent form against higher-quality opponents give him a clear edge on clay.
- Choinski is 15-11 on clay in 2026 with a 58% win rate, while Rehberg is 16-9 but against much weaker competition (avg opponent rank ~350 vs Choinski's ~150).
- Choinski won their only H2H 6-1 6-1 on clay in 2024, dominating serve (80% first-serve points won, 79% second-serve) and return (59% return points won).
- Choinski's recent form includes wins over top-100 players (Kopriva #64, Giron #92) and a competitive loss to Tiafoe (#19), while Rehberg's best win in the last 15 matches is over #66 Svajda on hard court.
- Choinski holds a 60.1% break-point save rate and 43% break-point conversion rate, both slightly better than Rehberg's 60.7% and 43.9%, and his return points won (40%) edges Rehberg's 39%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJan ChoinskiEstimated chance78%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches against similar or better competition have been low-scoring, and Choinski's serve dominance should keep the total games under 21.5.
- Choinski's last 5 completed matches averaged 19.6 total games, with 4 of 5 finishing under 21.5 games.
- Rehberg's matches against top-200 opponents on clay (Carballes Baena, Moeller) averaged 19.5 total games, both under 21.5.
- The H2H match had only 14 total games, and Choinski's efficient serve (68% first-serve points won) limits extended rallies.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Choinski's ability to hold serve easily and Rehberg's struggles against strong servers point to a short first set.
- In Choinski's last 10 matches, the first set averaged 8.9 games, with 7 of 10 finishing under 9.5 games.
- Rehberg's first sets against top-300 opponents on clay (Carballes Baena, Moeller) were 6-4 and 6-3, both under 9.5 games.
- The H2H first set was 6-1, and Choinski's first-serve win rate (68%) often leads to quick holds.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Choinski dominates as expected, the second set could be similarly one-sided, but Rehberg's occasional resilience adds uncertainty.
- In Choinski's last 5 straight-set wins, the second set averaged 8.4 games, with 4 of 5 under 9.5.
- Rehberg's second sets in losses to Carballes Baena and Moeller were 6-4 and 6-4, both under 9.5 games.
- The H2H second set was 6-1, and Choinski's return game (40% return points won) can create early breaks.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Choinski's strong start trend and Rehberg's vulnerability in opening sets make Choinski the clear favorite to take set 1.
- Choinski has won the first set in 12 of his last 15 matches, including against top-100 players like Kopriva and Giron.
- Rehberg has lost the first set in 5 of his last 10 matches, including against Olivieri (#201) and Butvilas (#225) on clay.
- Choinski's first-set win conversion rate is 88% for his career, indicating he rarely loses after winning the opener.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJan ChoinskiEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Given Choinski's high probability of winning set 1, his strong record of closing out matches in straight sets makes him likely to also take set 2.
- Choinski has won the second set in 11 of his last 15 matches, including straight-set wins in his last two clay matches.
- Rehberg has lost the second set in 4 of his last 7 losses, often after dropping the first set, indicating a pattern of fading.
- Choinski's career win rate after winning the first set is 88%, suggesting he maintains momentum into set 2.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonJan ChoinskiEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.50
The read
Choinski's straight-set dominance in recent matches and the one-sided H2H suggest a high likelihood of a 2-0 victory.
- Choinski has won 8 of his last 10 completed matches in straight sets, including a 6-4 6-4 win over Kuzmanov in the previous round.
- Rehberg has dropped a set in 4 of his last 10 matches, often against lower-ranked opponents, and lost in straight sets to Carballes Baena (#163) and Moeller (#372) on clay.
- In their H2H, Choinski won 6-1 6-1, losing only 2 games total, indicating a potential for another lopsided result.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostJan Choinski 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given both players' low tiebreak frequency and Choinski's ability to break serve, a tiebreak-free match is probable.
- Choinski has played a tiebreak in only 3 of his last 15 matches, and Rehberg in 2 of his last 15.
- Both players have tiebreak win rates around 52-56%, but their matches tend to be decided in regular games.
- The H2H had no tiebreaks, and Choinski's strong serve and return stats reduce the likelihood of extended sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Despite Rehberg's slightly higher double fault rate, the combined average is near the line, and the H2H suggests a low total, making under 5.5 likely.
- Choinski averages 2.4 double faults per match (double fault rate 2.4%) and Rehberg averages 3.4 (rate 3.4%), combining for 5.8 on average.
- In their H2H, Rehberg had 2 double faults and Choinski had none, totaling 2 in a short match.
- On clay, double faults tend to be slightly lower due to slower conditions, and both players have manageable rates.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Market price1.85Estimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-1 6-1Jan Choinski#100vMax Hans Rehberg#510Sep 6, 2024

1 total meetings

Jan Choinski

10W 5L

6-4 6-4#427Dimitar Kuzmanov

4-6 6-2 7-5 6-2#19Frances Tiafoe

6-3 7-5 6-2#64Vit Kopriva

6-3 6-3#37Zizou Bergs

6-4 6-7(4) 6-2#220Felix Gill

1-6 6-2 6-2#103Alexei Popyrin

7-5 6-7(2) 7-6(5)#92Marcos Giron

7-6(5) 6-4#102Yibing Wu

7-6(5) 3-6 6-4#141Gustavo Heide

6-4 2-6 6-3#284Maks Kasnikowski

7-5 6-0#260Pedro Boscardin Dias

6-1 7-5#174Federico Cina

6-3 6-4#364Norbert Gombos

6-3 6-3#180Luka Mikrut

6-4 6-4#216Tom Gentzsch

Max Hans Rehberg

10W 5L

6-4 6-4#215Moise Kouame

6-1 6-2#694Dylan Dietrich

6-4 3-6 6-4#447Olle Wallin

6-2 3-6 6-1#406Samuele Pieri

6-2 6-1—Gregoire Delattre

6-0 6-4—Louis Mouffe

3-6 6-3 6-4#201Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-3 6-3#528Alexander Donski

6-3 6-1#461Alex Marti Pujolras

6-4 6-4#163Roberto Carballes Baena

6-3 6-4#372Marvin Moeller

6-3 7-5#297Daniel Elahi Galan

6-3 6-2#91Francisco Comesana

6-2 6-2#66Zachary Svajda

7-5 2-6 6-3#225Edas Butvilas

Jan Choinski

Max Hans Rehberg

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Jan Choinski

Jan Choinski

Jan Choinski

Under 5.5

Jan Choinski 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Jan Choinski

Max Hans Rehberg