Andrea Pellegrino vs Raul Brancaccio: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Pellegrino's superior recent form, higher ranking, and lighter workload this week give him a clear edge over Brancaccio, despite Brancaccio's slightly better career clay stats.
- Pellegrino leads H2H 2-1, all on clay, with wins in 2021 and 2023; Brancaccio's win was in 2024.
- Pellegrino's recent form: 8-2 in last 10, including wins over top-20 players Tiafoe and Fils; Brancaccio is 4-6 in last 10.
- Pellegrino has a 24-13 clay record in 2026 vs Brancaccio's 19-15; Pellegrino's career clay win% is 53.3% vs Brancaccio's 57.2%, but current season edge is clear.
- Pellegrino had a lighter opening match (straight sets) while Brancaccio went three sets, giving Pellegrino a freshness edge.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAndrea PellegrinoEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
The combination of clay-court dynamics, similar break-point stats, and a history of tight H2H matches suggests a competitive match likely exceeding 21.5 games.
- Both players have high break-point conversion rates (Pellegrino 43%, Brancaccio 45%) and moderate save rates (~57%), suggesting multiple breaks and longer games.
- In their three H2H matches, total games were 25, 24, and 25, all over 21.5.
- Pellegrino's recent matches average 20.8 games; Brancaccio's average 21.3, but H2H history and clay surface dynamics push the total higher.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Historical H2H first sets have been tight, and both players' serve and return profiles on clay support a first set with at least 10 games.
- In their three H2H matches, first-set games were 13, 9, and 12, averaging 11.3.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 66%, indicating holds are common but breaks occur.
- Pellegrino's recent first sets: 9, 8, 8, 9, 8, 10, 10, 10, 8, 8 games; Brancaccio's: 13, 8, 7, 12, 9, 10, 8, 13, 13, 6, 8, 9, 9, 9, 9.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While not as strong as set 1, the second set often sees competitive games, especially if the first set is close, making over 9.5 games plausible.
- In H2H, second-set games were 12, 6, and 12, averaging 10.
- Both players have similar second-serve win percentages (Pellegrino 51%, Brancaccio 48%), which can lead to breaks and extended sets.
- Recent second sets for Pellegrino: 7, 7, 10, 12, 5, 8, 7, 8, 6, 8; Brancaccio: 9, 13, 2, 8, 7, 9, 6, 12, 11, 9, 8, 8, 9, 9, 12.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Pellegrino's strong first-set record and higher likelihood of starting fast, combined with Brancaccio's potential fatigue from a longer previous match, make Pellegrino the favorite in set 1.
- Pellegrino has won the first set in 7 of his last 10 matches; Brancaccio in 5 of his last 10.
- Pellegrino's first-set win conversion rate is 82% career, indicating strong starts.
- In their three H2H matches, the first-set winner went on to win the match each time.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrea PellegrinoEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given low ace rates and clay surface reducing ace effectiveness, the total aces are likely to stay under 7.5.
- Pellegrino's ace rate is 3.6% (career), Brancaccio's is 2.8%.
- In their three H2H matches, total aces were 16 (avg 5.3 per match).
- Both players rely more on rallying than big serving, especially on clay.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 7.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of above-average double fault rates and H2H history suggests over 5.5 double faults is likely.
- Pellegrino's double fault rate is 3.9%, Brancaccio's is 4.7%.
- In H2H, total double faults were 21 over 3 matches (avg 7 per match).
- Both players have moderate second-serve win percentages, leading to pressure and potential double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The H2H history and both players' tiebreak frequency suggest a tiebreak is a coin-flip possibility, making 'Yes' a reasonable low-confidence pick.
- In their three H2H matches, there were tiebreaks in two of them (2024 and 2021).
- Pellegrino's tiebreak win rate is 53%, Brancaccio's is 55%.
- Both players have had tiebreaks in recent matches: Pellegrino 3 in last 10, Brancaccio 5 in last 10.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Andrea Pellegrino #133Italy1Raul Brancaccio #248Italy2

Player Profiles

Andrea Pellegrino

Raul Brancaccio

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Over 9.5

Andrea Pellegrino

Andrea Pellegrino

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Andrea Pellegrino set 1 @ 1.30

Head-to-Head

Andrea Pellegrino

Raul Brancaccio