Andrea Pellegrino vs Max Alcala Gurri: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Pellegrino's higher ranking (133 vs 228) and stronger recent quality-of-opposition wins on clay give him a moderate edge, despite Alcala Gurri's high clay win volume.
- Pellegrino has a 23-13 clay record in 2026, including wins over top-20 opponents (Tiafoe, Fils) in recent weeks.
- Alcala Gurri is 44-12 on clay in 2026, but his recent losses came against lower-ranked players (Nedic, Gueymard Wayenburg) in the last two weeks.
- Pellegrino's last 5 matches: 3-2, with wins over Carballes Baena, Kasnikowski, and Cecchinato, all on clay.
- Alcala Gurri's last 5 matches: 3-2, with losses to Nedic and Gueymard Wayenburg, both on clay.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAndrea PellegrinoEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of high break-point conversion rates and recent match lengths averaging above 21.5 games supports a total games over, even in a best-of-3 format.
- Pellegrino's last 5 matches averaged 22.8 total games.
- Alcala Gurri's last 5 matches averaged 21.4 total games.
- Both players have high break-point conversion rates (Pellegrino 43%, Alcala Gurri 49%), suggesting multiple breaks and longer sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Alcala Gurri's ability to keep matches close, even in losses, makes a +3.5 game handicap a solid bet, as Pellegrino is unlikely to dominate the game count.
- Alcala Gurri's recent losses have been competitive, with an average game differential of -3.2 in his last 5 matches.
- Pellegrino's wins have often been tight, with an average game differential of +3.8 in his last 5 wins.
- Alcala Gurri's high first-serve percentage (71%) and return points won (47%) help him stay close in games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMax Alcala Gurri +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent first-set game counts and solid serving numbers make a tightly contested opening set likely, pushing the total over 9.5 games.
- Pellegrino's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games.
- Alcala Gurri's last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games.
- Both players have strong first-serve win percentages (Pellegrino 65.7%, Alcala Gurri 61.2%), reducing the chance of a quick set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While second sets can be more lopsided, the overall competitiveness of this matchup suggests a decent chance of another extended set, though confidence is lower.
- Pellegrino's last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games.
- Alcala Gurri's last 5 second sets averaged 9.4 games.
- Both players have shown the ability to extend sets, with multiple tiebreaks in recent matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players start sets well, but Pellegrino's slightly higher first-set win rate and home-crowd advantage in a Challenger opener tilt the first set narrowly in his favor.
- Pellegrino has won the first set in 10 of his last 15 matches.
- Alcala Gurri has won the first set in 11 of his last 15 matches.
- Pellegrino's first-set win conversion rate is 82% career, indicating he often capitalizes on early leads.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrea PellegrinoEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low ace rates for both players, especially on clay, make a total under 5.5 aces highly probable.
- Pellegrino's ace rate is 3.6% (career), averaging about 2-3 aces per match.
- Alcala Gurri's ace rate is 1.2% (career), averaging less than 1 ace per match.
- Both players rely more on rallying and point construction on clay, reducing ace counts.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Alcala Gurri's elevated double-fault rate is the primary driver for this over, though Pellegrino's lower rate keeps confidence at a low level.
- Pellegrino's double-fault rate is 3.9% (career), averaging about 3-4 per match.
- Alcala Gurri's double-fault rate is 6.5% (career), averaging about 5-6 per match.
- Alcala Gurri's high double-fault rate, combined with Pellegrino's moderate rate, pushes the combined total over 5.5 in most matches.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The frequency of tiebreaks in recent matches for both players suggests a slightly better than even chance of at least one tiebreak occurring.
- Pellegrino has played a tiebreak in 6 of his last 15 matches.
- Alcala Gurri has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15 matches.
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages near 50% (Pellegrino 53%, Alcala Gurri 49%).
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance52%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Andrea Pellegrino #133Italy2Max Alcala Gurri #228Spain0

Player Profiles

Andrea Pellegrino

Max Alcala Gurri

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Andrea Pellegrino

Andrea Pellegrino 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Andrea Pellegrino

Max Alcala Gurri