Amit Vales #725Israel22 – 1William Rejchtman Vinciguerra #921Sweden1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Amit Vales has a stronger overall career profile and recent form edge, while Rejchtman Vinciguerra lacks grass experience and enters with poor recent results.

• Vales has a 54% career win rate vs Rejchtman Vinciguerra's 46%.
• Vales holds a 1-1 grass record in 2025, while Rejchtman Vinciguerra has 0 career grass wins.
• Vales' recent form includes 3 wins in last 5 matches, all on hard, showing competitive level.
• Rejchtman Vinciguerra lost 4 of last 5 matches, with only one win against an unranked opponent.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches average above 21.5 games, and with neither dominant on serve, a competitive match is likely to exceed the total games line.

• Vales' last 5 matches averaged 22.4 total games.
• Rejchtman Vinciguerra's last 5 matches averaged 21.8 total games.
• Both players have a 50% tiebreak win rate, suggesting potential for close sets.
• In Bo3 matches, both players frequently go over 21.5 games when competitive.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

First sets in their recent matches tend to be close, and with moderate serve stats, the set1 total games is likely to exceed 9.5.

• Vales' last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games.
• Rejchtman Vinciguerra's last 5 first sets averaged 9.2 games.
• Both players have break point conversion rates around 43-45%, leading to competitive sets.
• Grass often produces tight sets with few breaks, pushing games over 9.5.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets in their recent matches also trend toward over 9.5 games, though confidence is lower due to potential fatigue or momentum shifts.

• Vales' last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games.
• Rejchtman Vinciguerra's last 5 second sets averaged 9.4 games.
• Both players have similar second-set game averages, indicating continued competitiveness.
• Grass surface can lead to quick holds, but break points are still converted at a moderate rate.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Vales tends to start matches stronger, while Rejchtman Vinciguerra has struggled in opening sets recently, making Vales the likely set1 winner.

• Vales won the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
• Rejchtman Vinciguerra lost the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches.
• Vales' first-set win conversion rate is 85%, indicating strong starts when he wins the opener.
• Rejchtman Vinciguerra's first-set win conversion is 75%, but he rarely wins the first set recently.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have high double fault rates, making over 5.5 total double faults likely even in a straight-set match.

• Vales averages 5.5 double faults per match.
• Rejchtman Vinciguerra averages 5.8 double faults per match.
• Combined double fault rate is over 11 per match on average.
• Grass can sometimes lead to more double faults due to aggressive second serves.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Grass surface and Rejchtman Vinciguerra's higher ace rate push the total aces toward over 7.5, though Vales' low ace count keeps confidence low.

• Vales averages 1.9 aces per match, Rejchtman Vinciguerra averages 4.2.
• Combined ace rate suggests around 6 aces per match, but grass can increase ace counts.
• Rejchtman Vinciguerra's lefty serve could produce more aces on grass.
• In best-of-3, total aces over 7.5 is plausible if match extends to three sets.