United KingdomATP WimbledonFinished

Predictions graded

Kyrian Jacquet #139France0Alexander Bublik #11Kazakhstan3

Sets 3-6 · 4-6 · 6-7Thu 2 Jul 2026, 17:02 Predictions gradedSecond RoundGrass

Predictions5–363%

Edges3–260%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlexander Bublik · 128 places

Kyrian Jacquet

France

Career-high No. 102 came on 2 February 2026 after his Manama Challenger title. ATP's May 2026 bio says he returned for Roland Garros after a two-month layoff caused by elbow surgery earlier in the season.

Current ranking: #139
Peak ranking: #102 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Alexander Bublik

Kazakhstan

Career-high No. 10 came on 12 January 2026. ATP's May 2026 bio says his 2025 breakout included titles on clay, grass and hard courts, underlining broad-surface strength.

Current ranking: #11
Peak ranking: #10 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Jul 2026, 07:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Alexander Bublik’s massive serve edge and top-15 grass-court pedigree make him a strong favourite against qualifier Kyrian Jacquet, who lacks best-of-five experience.

Expect a competitive match with over 36.5 total games and Bublik to win 3-1, as Jacquet’s return game can exploit Bublik’s occasional lapses. The ace count should easily surpass 22.5 given Bublik’s 13.9% ace rate on grass.

Context

Jacquet won qualifying matches on 22, 24 and 25 June, then beat Vilius Gaubas in straight sets on 30 June.
- He has spent more time on court this tournament than Bublik, who played only one match.
- Jacquet has never played a best-of-five match before this event, making the physical toll harder to manage.
Bublik beat Kokkinakis 4-6 6-3 6-7(10) 6-3 6-4 on 30 June.
- The match lasted 3 hours and 12 minutes, a heavy physical load for an opening round.
- Bublik has a 62% deciding-set win rate, showing he can recover in best-of-five matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alexander Bublik

1.29fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Bublik's massive serve edge and top-15 ranking on grass, combined with Jacquet's lack of Bo5 experience, make Bublik a strong favorite.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alexander Bublik

1.44fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Bublik's elite first-set win conversion and serve advantage give him a slight edge, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Alexander Bublik

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Bublik's serve and experience should allow him to control the second set, but the odds overstate his probability.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Bublik's massive serve edge and top-15 ranking on grass, combined with Jacquet's lack of Bo5 experience, make Bublik a strong favorite.
- Bublik career grass win% 58.6 (51-36), Jacquet 64.3% (9-5) but from far smaller sample
- Bublik ace rate 13.9% vs Jacquet 4.8%, first-serve win% 75.9% vs 68.2%
- Bublik ranking #11 vs Jacquet #139, Bublik 10-5 vs top-100 in 2026, Jacquet 1-2
- Bublik 5-set win over Kokkinakis shows Bo5 stamina, Jacquet never played Bo5 before this event
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlexander BublikEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bublik's unpredictable play and Jacquet's fighting spirit in a Bo5 setting make a longer match likely.
- Bublik's last 5-set match had 51 games, Jacquet's Bo5 debut went 32 games in straight sets
- Jacquet's recent grass matches average 22.5 games per Bo3, Bublik's 22.3
- Bo5 format and Bublik's volatile style often produce longer matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 36.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent first sets have been tight, making over 9.5 games likely.
- Jacquet's last 5 first sets: 6-3, 7-6, 7-6, 6-1, 4-6 (avg 9.8 games)
- Bublik's last 5 first sets: 4-6, 6-7, 4-6, 7-6, 7-6 (avg 10.6 games)
- Both players have strong first-set serve numbers
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jacquet's strong grass form and Bublik's inconsistency suggest Jacquet can stay within 6.5 games.
- Jacquet covered +6.5 in all 4 Wimbledon matches (max loss 6 games in Bo3)
- Bublik's last 5-set win was by only 5 games
- Jacquet's return stats (41% return points won) keep him competitive
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonKyrian Jacquet +6.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Bublik's elite first-set record and serve advantage should allow him to start strongly against a qualifier.
- Bublik first-set win conversion 87% career, Jacquet 82%
- Bublik won first set in 3 of last 5 matches, Jacquet in 4 of last 5
- Bublik serve dominance likely to pressure Jacquet early
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlexander BublikEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Bublik's serve and experience should allow him to control the second set against a qualifier.
- Bublik won second set in 3 of last 5 matches, Jacquet in 4 of last 5
- Bublik's serve advantage should hold in early sets
- Jacquet may need time to adjust to Bublik's power
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlexander BublikEstimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bublik's elite ace rate on grass should push the total aces well above 22.5 even in a 3-set match.
- Bublik averages 13.9 aces per 100 serves, Jacquet 4.8
- Bublik hit 18 aces in his 5-set win over Kokkinakis
- Grass surface amplifies ace counts for big servers
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 22.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bublik's high double fault rate, especially in longer matches, should push the total over 8.5.
- Bublik double fault rate 7.8%, Jacquet 4.5%
- Bublik averaged 5 double faults in his 5-set win
- Pressure of Bo5 and Bublik's high-risk second serve increase DF likelihood
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' serve-oriented games and recent tiebreak frequency make at least one tiebreak likely.
- Bublik tiebreak win% 54%, Jacquet 57%
- Bublik played tiebreaks in 3 of last 5 matches, Jacquet in 4 of last 5
- Both players have strong serve games that can lead to tiebreaks on grass
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%

Kyrian Jacquet

10W 5L

6-3 6-4 7-6(2)#129Vilius Gaubas

7-6(5) 6-4 6-4#172Timofey Skatov

7-6(9) 6-4#227Andrea Guerrieri

6-1 7-6(3)#260Pedro Boscardin Dias

4-6 6-2 6-2#273Henry Searle

6-3 7-6(9)#146Grigor Dimitrov

6-4 2-0 ret.#469Mees Rottgering

7-6(6) 7-6(4)#178Gauthier Onclin

1-6 7-6(10) 6-4#123Toby Samuel

6-4 6-2 6-2#94Marco Trungelliti

7-6(5) 6-3#220Felix Gill

2-6 6-3 7-6(8)#373Nerman Fatic

6-3 7-6(4)#226Lorenzo Giustino

2-6 6-4 6-0#226Lorenzo Giustino

6-7(4) 7-6(2) 6-1#136Arthur Gea

Alexander Bublik

7W 8L

4-6 6-3 6-7(10) 6-3 6-4#491Thanasi Kokkinakis

7-6(6) 6-1#67Mattia Bellucci

6-4 6-4#7Taylor Fritz

7-6(5) 7-6(3)#83Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

7-6(3) 3-6 6-2#74Jan-Lennard Struff

7-5 6-7(6) 6-4 7-5#74Jan-Lennard Struff

6-1 4-6 7-6(5)#17Learner Tien

5-7 6-4 6-2#28Arthur Rinderknech

6-4 6-3#225Edas Butvilas

4-6 6-3 7-5#17Learner Tien

6-1 6-2#57Sebastian Baez

6-2 7-5#87Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-4 6-2#101Alex Molcan

6-3 6-0#2Carlos Alcaraz

6-2 7-5#14Jiri Lehecka