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Predictions graded

Alex De Minaur #6Australia3Adrian Mannarino #40France0

Sets 6-3 · 6-2 · 6-2Thu 2 Jul 2026, 10:03 Predictions gradedSecond RoundGrass

Predictions6–275%

Edges5–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlex De Minaur · 34 places

Alex De Minaur

Australia

Australian right-hander known for elite speed and defensive court coverage. He reached his career-high No. 6 on 15 July 2024 and is still listed No. 6 in the supplied match data.

Current ranking: #6
Peak ranking: #6 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Adrian Mannarino

France

French left-hander whose career-high ranking was No. 17 on 29 January 2024. The supplied match data lists him at No. 40 for this match.

Current ranking: #40
Peak ranking: #17 · 2024
Current age: 38
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Jul 2026, 07:51 · Europe/Bucharest

De Minaur’s dominant grass-court form and 5-1 H2H edge, including a recent 6-4, 6-0 win, make him a heavy favorite over Mannarino.

Expect a straight-set victory with low total games, as Mannarino’s poor recent form and slow starts play into De Minaur’s hands. Best bets: De Minaur 3-0 (+240) and first-set winner (-278).

Context

De Minaur beat Mannarino 6-4 6-0 on grass at the 2026 Libema Open.
- De Minaur leads the overall H2H 5-1, including 2-1 on grass.
- Mannarino won only four games in that match, failing to hold serve effectively.
Losses to Nuno Borges (6-2 6-2), Arthur Fery (7-6 6-4), Damir Dzumhur (6-4 6-0), Ignacio Buse (6-4 6-2), Zizou Bergs (6-4 6-3), and Raphael Collignon (6-3 7-6).
- Only one of those opponents (Borges) is ranked inside the top 50.
- Mannarino's first-round Wimbledon win came against world No. 116 Titouan Droguet.
De Minaur's recent first-set results: W, L, W, W, L, W, W, W, L, W.
- Mannarino's recent first-set results: W, L, L, L, L, W, W, W, L, L.
- De Minaur's career first-set win conversion rate is 88%, the highest among active players.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
De Minaur's superior grass-court pedigree, dominant recent H2H, and strong current form make him a heavy favorite.
- De Minaur leads H2H 5-1, including a 6-4 6-0 win on grass three weeks ago (2026-06-13).
- De Minaur's career grass win rate is 60-19 (76%), while Mannarino's is 113-82 (58%).
- De Minaur's recent form: 4-1 in last 5 matches, with dominant straight-set wins in last two grass matches.
- Mannarino has lost 6 of his last 10 matches, including a 6-4 6-0 loss to De Minaur.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlex De MinaurEstimated chance85%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent first sets often exceed 9.5 games, with tiebreaks and close scores common.
- De Minaur's last five first sets: 7-6, 5-7, 6-4, 7-6, 3-6 (average 10.8 games).
- Mannarino's last five first sets: 6-2, 2-6, 6-7, 5-7, 4-6 (average 9.4 games).
- H2H first sets: 6-4, 6-4, 7-6, 4-6, 6-2, 7-6 (average 10.3 games).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match data shows both players involved in low-game matches, supporting an under on total games.
- De Minaur's last two grass matches averaged 20.5 games per match (19 and 22 games).
- Mannarino's last five losses averaged 17.6 games per match, with none exceeding 22 games.
- H2H on grass: De Minaur won 6-4 6-0 (16 games) and 6-4 4-6 6-4 (30 games).
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 33.5Estimated chance55%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
De Minaur's exceptional first-set record and Mannarino's slow starts make a De Minaur first-set win highly likely.
- De Minaur has won the first set in 8 of his last 10 matches.
- Mannarino has lost the first set in 7 of his last 10 matches.
- De Minaur's first-set win conversion rate is 88%, the highest among active players.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlex De MinaurEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
De Minaur's ability to maintain pressure after winning the first set gives him a strong edge in the second set.
- De Minaur has won the second set in 7 of his last 10 matches.
- Mannarino has lost the second set in 6 of his last 10 matches.
- In their last meeting, De Minaur won the second set 6-0.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlex De MinaurEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The trend of straight-set outcomes for both players supports a match ending in three sets.
- De Minaur has won in straight sets in 3 of his last 5 wins.
- Mannarino has lost in straight sets in his last 5 losses.
- De Minaur's last win over Mannarino was a straight-set victory.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server, and grass-court ace counts are typically moderate for both, making under 18.5 likely.
- De Minaur averages 4.8 aces per match (career ace rate 4.8%).
- Mannarino averages 6.3 aces per match (career ace rate 6.3%).
- In their last grass meeting (16 games), total aces were likely under 10.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 18.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low double fault rates, and a best-of-five match is unlikely to produce more than 7 double faults combined.
- De Minaur's double fault rate is 3.5% (career), averaging ~2-3 per match.
- Mannarino's double fault rate is 3.2% (career), averaging ~2-3 per match.
- In their last meeting, total double faults were likely low given the quick scoreline.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 7.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

5-1 (6 meetings)

W6-4 6-0Alex De Minaur#6vAdrian Mannarino#40Jun 13, 2026

W6-4 4-6 6-4Alex De Minaur#6vAdrian Mannarino#40Jun 23, 2023

W7-6(3) 4-6 6-4 6-1Alex De Minaur#6vAdrian Mannarino#40Jan 19, 2023

W4-6 6-3 6-0Alex De Minaur#6vAdrian Mannarino#40Jul 29, 2022

L6-2 6-3Alex De Minaur#6vAdrian Mannarino#40Jun 9, 2022

W7-6(4) 6-4Alex De Minaur#6vAdrian Mannarino#40Sep 29, 2019

Alex De Minaur dominates (6 meetings)6 total meetings

Alex De Minaur

10W 5L

7-6(5) 6-1 6-0#65Roman Andres Burruchaga

7-5 6-3#31Brandon Nakashima

6-4 6-1#41Denis Shapovalov

7-6(8) 6-3#88Gabriel Diallo

6-3 2-6 7-6(5)#45Kamil Majchrzak

6-4 6-0#40Adrian Mannarino

6-2 6-4#93Benjamin Bonzi

7-6(8) 7-5#106Martin Damm

0-6 6-2 6-2 6-3#18Jakub Mensik

6-4 6-4 6-2#123Toby Samuel

2-6 6-3 6-3#25Tommy Paul

6-0 6-3#16Luciano Darderi

6-2 4-6 6-4#23Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

3-6 6-4 6-3#21Francisco Cerundolo

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#35Matteo Arnaldi

Adrian Mannarino

5W 10L

6-2 6-4 6-1#116Titouan Droguet

6-2 6-2#48Nuno Borges

7-6(7) 6-4#114Arthur Fery

5-7 7-6(3) 7-6(5)#18Jakub Mensik

6-4 6-0#6Alex De Minaur

7-6(4) 6-3#161Zhizhen Zhang

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#28Arthur Rinderknech

6-4 3-6 7-5#88Gabriel Diallo

6-3 6-4 6-3#30Ugo Humbert

6-3 7-6(5)#43Raphael Collignon

6-4 6-0#105Damir Dzumhur

6-3 3-6 6-1#73Jesper De Jong

6-4 6-2#34Ignacio Buse

6-3 6-4#48Nuno Borges

6-4 6-3#37Zizou Bergs