Maks Kasnikowski vs Andres Santamarta Roig: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Kasnikowski's superior ranking, career win rate, and recent form against stronger opposition give him a clear edge in this Bo3 clay match.
- Kasnikowski has a 62.9% career win rate vs Santamarta Roig's 54.7%.
- Kasnikowski is ranked 284 vs Santamarta Roig's 782, a significant ranking gap.
- Kasnikowski's recent form: 9-6 in last 15, with wins over higher-ranked opponents (e.g., Andrade, Giustino).
- Santamarta Roig's recent form: 7-8 in last 15, with losses to players ranked outside top 250.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMaks KasnikowskiEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Kasnikowski's recent first sets have been tight, and against a competent server, the opener should exceed 9.5 games.
- Kasnikowski's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games.
- Santamarta Roig's last 5 first sets averaged 8.8 games, but he faced lower-ranked players.
- Kasnikowski's first-set tiebreak win rate is 54%, indicating close sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing decent hold rates and Kasnikowski's matches trending toward longer contests, over 21.5 games is likely in a competitive Bo3.
- Kasnikowski's last 5 matches averaged 22.2 total games.
- Santamarta Roig's last 5 matches averaged 18.6 total games, but against weaker opponents.
- Both players have solid serve stats, with Kasnikowski saving 59.2% break points and Santamarta Roig 60.3%.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Even if Kasnikowski leads, Santamarta Roig's resilience could push the second set over 9.5 games.
- Kasnikowski's last 5 second sets averaged 9.4 games.
- Santamarta Roig's last 5 second sets averaged 8.4 games.
- Both players have break point save rates above 59%, suggesting holds.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
If Kasnikowski wins, his typical margin and Santamarta Roig's struggles against better opponents suggest a cover of -3.5 games is possible.
- Kasnikowski's average games won per match in wins is 12.8, while Santamarta Roig's average games lost in losses is 11.2.
- Kasnikowski's recent wins have been by margins of 6, 3, and 6 games.
- Santamarta Roig's losses to higher-ranked players have been by 6, 7, and 6 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMaks Kasnikowski -3.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Kasnikowski's high first-set win conversion and recent tight-set win suggest he can take the opener against a lower-ranked opponent.
- Kasnikowski's first-set win conversion rate is 83% career, indicating strong starts.
- Santamarta Roig's first-set win conversion is 97%, but against weaker competition.
- Kasnikowski won his last match 7-6(4), 6-1, showing ability to edge tight first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMaks KasnikowskiEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kasnikowski's higher ace rate and the likelihood of a competitive match should push total aces over 6.5.
- Kasnikowski averages 5% ace rate, with 1083 career aces over 310 matches (~3.5 per match).
- Santamarta Roig averages 1.2% ace rate, with 43 career aces over 64 matches (~0.7 per match).
- In Bo3 clay matches, Kasnikowski's ace count often exceeds 3, and combined with opponent's aces, over 6.5 is plausible.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 6.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Santamarta Roig's higher double fault rate and the pressure of a Challenger match should lead to over 5.5 double faults.
- Kasnikowski's double fault rate is 2.7%, with 592 career double faults over 310 matches (~1.9 per match).
- Santamarta Roig's double fault rate is 4%, with 148 career double faults over 64 matches (~2.3 per match).
- Combined, they average over 4 double faults per match, and a tight match could increase errors.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kasnikowski's tendency for close sets and Santamarta Roig's decent serve make a tiebreak likely in this Bo3 encounter.
- Kasnikowski's tiebreak win rate is 54%, with tiebreaks in 3 of his last 15 matches.
- Santamarta Roig's tiebreak win rate is 27%, but he has played few tiebreaks.
- Kasnikowski's last match featured a first-set tiebreak, showing his sets can be tight.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Maks Kasnikowski #284Poland2Andres Santamarta Roig #782Spain0

Player Profiles

Maks Kasnikowski

Andres Santamarta Roig

Quick Take

Context

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Maks Kasnikowski

Maks Kasnikowski

Over 9.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Maks Kasnikowski

Andres Santamarta Roig