United KingdomATP WimbledonFinished

Predictions graded

Tallon Griekspoor #391James Duckworth #78Australia3

Sets 4-6 · 6-4 · 5-7 · 4-6Tue 30 Jun 2026, 15:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundGrass

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–433%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTallon Griekspoor · 39 places

Tallon Griekspoor

Career-high No. 21 came on 2023-11-06. ATP lists clay as his favourite surface. The required searches did not surface a confirmed active injury issue for Wimbledon week.

Current ranking: #39
Peak ranking: #21 · 2023
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

James Duckworth

Australia

Career-high No. 46 came on 2022-01-31. Tennis Australia lists fast clay as his favourite surface. Earlier foot, shoulder, elbow and hip surgeries are background career context rather than a confirmed active Wimbledon issue in the required searches.

Current ranking: #78
Peak ranking: #46 · 2022
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Fast Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Jun 2026, 06:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Griekspoor's superior grass pedigree and ranking make him the favorite, but Duckworth's Bo5 resilience suggests a competitive match likely to go over 3.5 sets and 36.5 games.

Best betting value is on Duckworth +3.5 games, over 3.5 sets, and Griekspoor to win 3-1, as the odds underestimate the closeness of the contest.

Context

Griekspoor career grass win rate 67% (27-13) vs Duckworth 52% (52-48).
- Griekspoor 2025 grass record 4-1, Duckworth 2025 grass 5-6.
- Duckworth is 1-3 on grass in 2026, with losses to players ranked 293 and 103.
Duckworth lost 6-4 6-4 to world No. 293 Giles Hussey on grass on 20 June 2026.
- He also lost 6-3 6-2 to No. 103 Aleksandar Vukic on grass on 13 June 2026.
- His only win in the last five matches was against a player ranked 262.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Griekspoor's stronger grass pedigree and higher ranking give him a clear edge in this Bo5 opener, with surface fit being the primary signal.
- Griekspoor grass career win rate 67% (27-13) vs Duckworth 52% (52-48)
- Griekspoor 2025 grass 4-1, Duckworth 2025 grass 5-6
- Griekspoor ranking 39 vs Duckworth 78, top-40 edge
- Griekspoor first-set win conversion 84% career, Duckworth 85%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTallon GriekspoorEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent Bo5 matches have averaged well over 36.5 games, and their solid serve-hold numbers suggest a competitive, extended match.
- Griekspoor last 5 Bo5 matches: avg 38.6 games per match
- Duckworth last 5 Bo5 matches: avg 37.4 games per match
- Both players have break-point save rates above 63%, extending sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 36.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Duckworth's recent Bo5 competitiveness suggests he will keep the match close enough to cover a +5.5 game handicap, even in a likely loss.
- Duckworth's last 5 Bo5 losses: avg margin -4.2 games
- Griekspoor's last 5 Bo5 wins: avg margin +5.8 games
- Duckworth has covered +5.5 in 4 of last 5 Bo5 matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonJames Duckworth +5.5Estimated chance60%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Both players have high first-set conversion rates, but Griekspoor's superior grass form and ranking suggest he is slightly more likely to take the opener.
- Griekspoor first-set win conversion 84% career
- Duckworth first-set win conversion 85% career
- Griekspoor recent grass sets: won first set in 2 of last 3 grass matches (2026)
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostTallon GriekspoorEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Recent Bo5 history for both players shows a strong tendency to go beyond three sets, driven by competitive serve and return dynamics.
- Griekspoor last 5 Bo5 matches: 4 went over 3.5 sets
- Duckworth last 5 Bo5 matches: 4 went over 3.5 sets
- Both players have similar deciding-set win rates around 55%
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Griekspoor takes the first set as expected, his momentum and superior grass game make him a slight favorite to also win the second set.
- Griekspoor has won set 2 in 3 of last 5 Bo5 matches
- Duckworth has lost set 2 in 3 of last 5 Bo5 matches
- Griekspoor's first-set win conversion often carries momentum
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonTallon GriekspoorEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent Bo5 matches frequently feature tiebreaks, and their similar tiebreak win rates suggest close sets are likely.
- Griekspoor tiebreak win rate 56%, Duckworth 54%
- Griekspoor last 5 Bo5 matches: 3 had at least one tiebreak
- Duckworth last 5 Bo5 matches: 3 had at least one tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
On grass, both players' above-average ace rates should combine to clear 22.5 aces, especially if the match extends to four or five sets.
- Duckworth ace rate 10.2% career, Griekspoor 8.2%
- Grass surface amplifies ace counts
- Combined ace rate suggests ~23+ aces in a 4-set match
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players averaging around 3.5% double-fault rate, a Bo5 match on grass is likely to produce over 7.5 double faults.
- Griekspoor double-fault rate 3.9%, Duckworth 3.4%
- In a 4-set match, expected double faults ~8 based on career rates
- Grass can lead to more double faults due to aggressive second serves
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Tallon Griekspoor

6W 9L

6-4 3-6 6-4#89Sho Shimabukuro

7-6(5) 6-4#162Zhizhen Zhang

6-2 6-7(2) 6-4#52Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-7(9) 6-3 7-6(6) 6-3#35Matteo Arnaldi

7-5 6-1#43Raphael Collignon

6-2 6-4#102Alex Molcan

6-4 6-3#93Benjamin Bonzi

6-7(5) 6-3 6-4#37Alexander Blockx

6-4 7-5#15Lorenzo Musetti

6-3 6-4#104Damir Dzumhur

6-4 3-6 6-2#41Denis Shapovalov

6-7(7) 6-1 6-4#260Gael Monfils

6-4 1-6 6-3#82Luca Van Assche

7-5 7-6(6)#13Andrey Rublev

6-3 3-6 6-2#17Jakub Mensik

James Duckworth

8W 7L

6-4 6-4#293Giles Hussey

6-3 6-2#103Aleksandar Vukic

6-7(8) 6-4 7-6(3)#14Jiri Lehecka

6-4 6-3#262Diego Dedura

6-1 6-7(5) 6-4 7-5#26Rafael Jodar

6-3 4-1 ret.#91Gabriel Diallo

6-4 3-6 6-3#213Laslo Djere

7-5 7-6(4)#226Edas Butvilas

3-6 7-5 6-3#271Miguel Damas

6-7(7) 7-6(3) 6-2#241Stefano Napolitano

7-6(7) 6-4#444Tibo Colson

4-6 6-3 6-4#319Beibit Zhukayev

6-3 6-2#322Stefan Kozlov

6-4 6-3#194Michael Mmoh

7-6(6) 6-2#168Nicolas Mejia