United KingdomWTA WimbledonFinished

Predictions graded

Kimberly Birrell #73Australia2Alina Korneeva #94Russia1

Sets 6-3 · 0-6 · 6-2Tue 30 Jun 2026, 13:02 Predictions gradedFirst RoundGrass

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKimberly Birrell · 21 places

Kimberly Birrell

Australia

Career-high No. 60 came on May 5, 2025. WTA lists hard as her favorite surface. She missed the second half of 2019 and all of 2020 after elbow surgery.

Current ranking: #73
Peak ranking: #60 · 2025
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Alina Korneeva

Russia

Former junior world No. 1 who won the 2023 Australian Open and French Open girls' singles titles. She reached a career-high WTA No. 94 on June 22, 2026 during her first top-100 rise.

Current ranking: #94
Peak ranking: #94 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Jun 2026, 08:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Alina Korneeva's elite return stats and 92% first-set win rate give her a structural edge over Kimberly Birrell, despite Birrell's grass experience.

The match is expected to be close, with value on Korneeva to win, over 21.5 total games, and a tiebreak occurring. Avoid Birrell's game handicap and Korneeva 2-1 correct score due to surface and form risks.

Context

Beat Barbora Krejcikova 6-3 7-6(6) in Eastbourne first round on June 23, 2026.
- Also beat Peyton Stearns 7-5 6-0 and Indianna Spink 7-6(6) 6-4 in the same tournament.
- Lost to Petra Marcinko 6-1 6-4 in the next round, but overall grass form is positive.
Career first-set win conversion rate is 92%.
- Won the first set in four of her last five matches, including three qualifying wins at Wimbledon.
- Only exception was a loss to Martyna Kubka where she lost the first set in a tiebreak.
Korneeva's career return points won is 48%, compared to Birrell's 45%.
- Korneeva converts 51% of break points, Birrell only 45%.
- Birrell's break-point save rate is 54.8%, which is below average.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Korneeva's superior career win rate, return stats, and elite first-set conversion give her a structural edge, despite Birrell's greater grass experience.
- Korneeva career win% 73.6 vs Birrell 54.7
- Korneeva return points won 48% vs Birrell 45%
- Korneeva break point convert 51% vs Birrell 45%
- Korneeva first set win conversion 92% vs Birrell 85%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlina KorneevaEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match data shows both players involved in close contests, pushing total games above 20.5 in most matches.
- Birrell last 5 matches: avg 21.6 total games
- Korneeva last 5 matches: avg 22.8 total games
- Both players have competitive recent matches with multiple tiebreaks
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in recent matches for both players frequently exceed 9.5 games, indicating a tight opening set is likely.
- Birrell last 5 first sets: 10, 9, 12, 13, 10 games
- Korneeva last 5 first sets: 8, 13, 13, 13, 8 games
- Both players have strong serve hold rates on grass
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While second sets can be one-sided, the majority of recent second sets for both players have gone over 9.5 games.
- Birrell last 5 second sets: 10, 13, 5, 10, 10 games
- Korneeva last 5 second sets: 6, 13, 13, 11, 9 games
- Both players have shown ability to extend second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Korneeva's exceptional first-set conversion rate and recent form suggest she is likely to start strongly.
- Korneeva first set win conversion 92% career
- Birrell first set win conversion 85% career
- Korneeva won first set in 4 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlina KorneevaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Birrell's high frequency of three-set matches and Korneeva's strong deciding set record suggest a close match that could go the distance.
- Birrell 3-set matches in last 15: 8 of 15
- Korneeva 3-set matches in last 15: 5 of 15
- Korneeva deciding set win% 68% career
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Both players have been involved in frequent tiebreaks recently, and their serving stats suggest close sets are likely.
- Birrell tiebreak win% 48%, Korneeva 58%
- Birrell last 5 matches: 2 tiebreaks
- Korneeva last 5 matches: 3 tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Kimberly Birrell

5W 10L

6-1 6-4#51Petra Marcinko

6-3 7-6(6)#37Barbora Krejcikova

7-5 6-0#63Peyton Stearns

7-6(6) 6-4#639Indianna Spink

4-6 7-6(3) 6-4#29Ann Li

2-6 6-4 7-6(3)#99Katie Volynets

6-2 6-3#327Mingge Xu

2-6 6-1 6-2#58Magda Linette

6-3 0-6 7-6(5)#49Oleksandra Oliynykova

1-6 6-3 6-3#4Jessica Pegula

7-5 7-6(2)#59Katie Boulter

6-3 6-2#123Yue Yuan

6-4 1-6 6-1#71Panna Udvardy

4-6 6-3 6-3#151Harriet Dart

6-2 2-6 6-3#29Ann Li

Alina Korneeva

10W 5L

6-2 6-0#232Fiona Crawley

6-2 6-7(5) 7-5#150Andrea Lazaro Garcia

2-6 7-6(2) 6-3#186Alexandra Shubladze

7-6(4) 5-7 6-4#214Martyna Kubka

6-2 6-4#249Fangran Tian

6-4 7-5#193Celine Naef

7-6(2) 6-4#20Anna Kalinskaya

6-3 6-3#44Elisabetta Cocciaretto

6-3 6-2#182Julia Riera

4-6 6-4 6-2#158Jazmin Ortenzi

6-3 7-6(3)#247Nao Hibino

6-1 6-4#99Katie Volynets

6-2 7-6(2)#71Panna Udvardy

6-3 6-3#83Lilli Tagger

7-6(1) 3-6 6-2#97Ella Seidel