Anhelina Kalinina #70Ukraine11 – 2Kamilla Rakhimova #65Uzbekistan2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83

The read

Given the competitive nature of their recent matches and the likelihood of at least one tight set, the total games should exceed 21.5.

• Kalinina's last 5 matches averaged 20.8 total games; Rakhimova's averaged 22.6.
• Their April 2026 meeting had 29 games.
• Both players have moderate serve stats, with break-point conversion rates around 48-50%.
• Grass often leads to shorter points, but both have shown ability to extend sets in recent matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Rakhimova's recent competitiveness suggests she can keep the match close enough to cover a +3.5 game handicap.

• Rakhimova's last 5 losses: margins of 2, 5, 8, 5, and 6 games.
• Kalinina's last 5 wins: margins of 3, 5, 5, 4, and 5 games.
• In their April 2026 meeting, Rakhimova covered +3.5 games (lost by 5 games total).
• Rakhimova has been competitive in most recent matches, even in losses.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Recent first-set trends for both players indicate a high likelihood of a closely contested opener exceeding 9.5 games.

• Kalinina's last 5 first sets: 10, 13, 10, 10, 6 games.
• Rakhimova's last 5 first sets: 13, 9, 12, 8, 10 games.
• In their April 2026 H2H, the first set had 8 games, but recent trends show longer openers.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 61-63%, leading to competitive games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62

The read

Kalinina's strong recent trend of winning first sets and Rakhimova's struggles in set one suggest Kalinina is likely to take the opener.

• Kalinina has won the first set in 4 of her last 5 matches.
• Rakhimova has lost the first set in 3 of her last 5 matches.
• Kalinina's career first-set win conversion is 89%.
• In their April 2026 meeting, Kalinina won the first set 6-2.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace rates, and even on grass, their combined ace output is unlikely to exceed 7.5 in a best-of-three match.

• Kalinina's ace rate is 2.0% (career), Rakhimova's is 2.3%.
• In their April 2026 H2H, total aces were 10 (7 for Kalinina, 3 for Rakhimova) over 29 games.
• Grass can increase ace counts, but neither player is a big server.
• Recent matches: Kalinina averaged ~2 aces per match, Rakhimova ~1.5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Given their high double-fault rates and the precedent from their H2H, the total double faults should exceed 8.5.

• Kalinina's double-fault rate is 5.7%, Rakhimova's is 5.2%.
• In their April 2026 H2H, they combined for 17 double faults (7 for Kalinina, 10 for Rakhimova).
• Both players average 3-4 double faults per match in recent outings.
• Grass can sometimes lead to more double faults due to lower bounce and faster conditions.