Jan-Lennard Struff #77Germany33 – 2Sebastian Baez #56Argentina2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40

The read

Struff's superior grass-court pedigree, strong serve, and recent Wimbledon success give him a clear edge over Baez, who has minimal grass experience and a weaker serve profile.

• Struff has 33 career grass wins vs Baez's 3, with a 2-2 grass record in 2026 vs Baez's 0-0 on grass this season.
• Struff reached Wimbledon 3R in 2024 and 2025; Baez lost in straight sets in 1R at Wimbledon 2025.
• Struff's serve stats: 10.3% ace rate, 75.3% first-serve win rate on grass-friendly profile; Baez's ace rate is 2.2% with 63.6% first-serve win rate.
• H2H: Struff won their only meeting 1-6 7-6(3) 6-2 on clay in 2024, showing ability to adjust after slow start.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Given Struff's serve and Baez's return ability, sets are likely to be competitive, pushing total games over 33.5 in a best-of-5 format.

• Struff's recent Bo5 matches: 26-21 vs Bublik (4 sets), 13-20 vs Faria (3 sets), 14-16 vs Bublik (3 sets) – averaging 35+ total games.
• Baez's only recent Bo5 match was a 4-set loss with 30 games, but his clay-heavy style may extend rallies on grass.
• Both players have break-point conversion rates around 39-45%, suggesting breaks but not quick sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Baez's competitiveness and Struff's occasional lapses suggest Baez can stay within 5.5 games even in a loss.

• Struff's recent wins have been by margins of 3, 6, and 5 games in Bo5; losses by 7, 5, and 9 games.
• Baez's losses have been by 4, 5, and 8 games, but he has kept matches close on clay.
• On grass, Struff may not dominate enough to cover a 5.5-game spread.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53

The read

Struff's powerful serve and grass experience should allow him to start strongly against a grass novice like Baez.

• Struff's first-set win conversion rate is 82% career, indicating strong starts.
• Baez's first-set win conversion is 85%, but his grass inexperience may lead to a slow start.
• Struff's serve is more effective on grass, likely giving him early control.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10

The read

With Struff's serve and Baez's return ability, at least one tight set is likely, pushing the match to 4 or 5 sets.

• Struff's last 5 Bo5 matches: 4 sets (vs Bublik), 3 sets (vs Faria), 4 sets (vs Bublik), 3 sets (vs Mensik), 3 sets (vs Lehecka) – 3 of 5 went over 3.5 sets.
• Baez's only recent Bo5 match went 4 sets.
• Grass can produce tiebreaks and extended sets, increasing set count.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Struff's serve and Baez's return ability on grass make a tiebreak likely in at least one set.

• Struff's tiebreak win rate is 49%, and he has played tiebreaks in 3 of his last 10 matches.
• Baez's tiebreak win rate is 52%, and he played a tiebreak in his last match.
• Grass often leads to tight sets and tiebreaks, especially with a big server like Struff.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Struff's big serve on grass should produce a high ace count, easily pushing the combined total over 18.5.

• Struff averages 10.3% ace rate; in a 4-set match, he could hit 15+ aces alone.
• Baez's ace rate is only 2.2%, but Struff's high ace count will drive the total.
• In their H2H, Struff hit 9 aces in 3 sets; over 4-5 sets, 18+ is plausible.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Both players can be prone to double faults under pressure, and a 4-set match could see enough to go over 7.5.

• Struff's double-fault rate is 4.6%, Baez's is 2.5%.
• In their H2H, both had 5 double faults in 3 sets.
• Over a longer match, combined double faults could exceed 7.5.