Juan Bautista Torres #281Argentina00 – 2Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo #5822

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Torres' superior clay-court win rate and recent form, combined with a slight edge in serve/return stats, make him the favorite in this Bo3 clay match.

• Torres has a 24-15 clay record in 2026 vs Aguilar Cardozo's 11-8, showing stronger surface consistency.
• Torres holds a 47.2% break point convert rate and 56.3% save rate, slightly edging Aguilar Cardozo's 48.4% and 55.1%.
• Torres has won 8 of his last 10 matches, including a 6-0 third set in his opener, indicating strong current form.
• Aguilar Cardozo has two retirements in his last 15 matches (March and February 2026), raising minor durability concerns.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Recent match lengths and balanced break point stats point to a competitive match likely exceeding 21.5 total games.

• Torres' last 5 matches averaged 22.4 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Aguilar Cardozo's last 5 completed matches averaged 21.6 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Both players have break point conversion rates near 48%, suggesting competitive service breaks and extended games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The first set is likely to be tight, with both players holding serve effectively early on, pushing the game total over 9.5.

• Torres' last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Aguilar Cardozo's last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 62-63%, limiting quick breaks.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Torres' high first-set win conversion and recent trend of starting fast give him a clear edge in the opening set.

• Torres has an 88% first-set win conversion rate in his career, indicating he starts matches strongly.
• Aguilar Cardozo's first-set win conversion is 84%, but he lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
• Torres won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, including a 6-3 opener in his most recent win.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10

The read

The competitive stats and recent three-set frequency suggest a higher likelihood of this match going to a deciding set.

• Torres has played 3 three-set matches in his last 10, showing he can be pushed to a decider.
• Aguilar Cardozo has played 4 three-set matches in his last 10, indicating resilience.
• Both players have deciding set win percentages near 46-49%, suggesting a close match if it goes the distance.