ATP EastbourneFinished

Predictions graded

Toby Samuel #142United Kingdom2Juan Manuel Cerundolo #45Argentina0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Thu 25 Jun 2026, 10:22 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalGrass

Predictions2–625%

Edges0–60%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJuan Manuel Cerundolo · 97 places

Toby Samuel

United Kingdom

ATP Tour's bio update on 23 May 2026 says Samuel rose from outside the Top 1000 in June 2025 into the Top 200 by March 2026 after a 15-match winning streak. He also qualified for the 2026 Roland Garros main draw on debut, which fits the current upward trajectory. Reliable public profile data on his age and preferred surface was limited in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #142
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Argentina

ATP Tour's bio update on 22 May 2026 lists clay as his favourite surface and says he rebounded from outside the Top 200 in 2024 to a career-best level after Bordeaux in May 2026. Eastbourne's 24 June draw seeded him No. 8 at No. 45, reinforcing the current upward trend.

Current ranking: #45
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Jun 2026, 22:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Cerundolo's higher ranking, strong recent form, and perfect grass record this week make him the favorite, but Samuel's home crowd and lighter workload could push the match to three sets.

Expect a competitive battle with over 21.5 total games and a tiebreak likely.

Context

Cerundolo beat Collignon 6-4 4-6 7-6(5) and Fery 6-2 7-6(2) in Eastbourne, both lasting over 2 hours.
- Samuel entered as a lucky loser, got a bye, and beat Tirante 6-1 7-6(7) in his only main-draw match.
- Cerundolo's two wins this week total 30 games played, while Samuel's single win was 20 games.
Samuel lost to Fery (rank 118) 6-0 6-2 at Ilkley on 16 June.
- He is 4-3 on grass in 2026, with the three losses all coming against players ranked outside the top 100.
- His last five grass matches: W vs Tirante, L vs Arnaldi, W vs Halys, L vs Fery, L vs Sweeny.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Cerundolo's superior ranking, recent high-quality wins, and perfect grass record this week give him a clear edge, though Samuel's home advantage and lighter workload keep it from being a lock.
- Cerundolo is 2-0 on grass in 2026, both wins this week in Eastbourne, while Samuel is 4-3 on grass this year but lost to Arthur Fery (rank 118) 6-0 6-2 on grass last week.
- Cerundolo's career return points won (43%) and break point conversion (46%) are slightly better than Samuel's (42% and 47%), but Cerundolo's break point save rate (56.7%) is notably lower than Samuel's (64.8%).
- Cerundolo has a 62% career deciding-set win rate vs Samuel's 51%, and Cerundolo's first-set win conversion is 88% vs Samuel's 91%.
- Cerundolo's recent form includes wins over top-50 players (Collignon, Landaluce) and a five-set win over Sinner, while Samuel's best recent win is over Tirante (rank 54).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJuan Manuel CerundoloEstimated chance65%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
With both players showing vulnerability on serve and strong returning, a competitive match with at least one tight set is expected, pushing total games over 21.5.
- Cerundolo's last two matches went 23 and 33 games, while Samuel's last two went 20 and 29 games.
- Both players have high break point conversion rates (Cerundolo 46.3%, Samuel 46.7%) and moderate hold rates, suggesting multiple breaks and extended sets.
- Cerundolo's career tiebreak win rate is 64%, and Samuel's is 65%, indicating close sets are likely.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
The combination of decent serving and strong returning makes a 7-5 or 6-4 set likely, with a tiebreak also possible, so over 9.5 games is a reasonable expectation.
- Cerundolo's first sets this week: 6-4 and 6-2; Samuel's: 6-1 and 3-6.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 64-70%, but second-serve win percentages are only 50-52%, leading to potential breaks.
- Cerundolo has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 matches, and Samuel in 2 of his last 5.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Even if one player dominates early, the second set is likely to be competitive given their return abilities and history of close sets.
- In their last matches, Cerundolo's second set went 7-6 and 4-6, while Samuel's went 7-6 and 6-4.
- Both players have shown they can bounce back after losing the first set, with Cerundolo winning 62% of deciding sets and Samuel 51%.
- Cerundolo's second-serve points won (50.4%) and Samuel's (52.3%) are below average, increasing break chances.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Samuel is likely to be competitive enough to cover a 3.5-game handicap, especially if he takes a set or keeps sets tight.
- Samuel's recent losses have been close: 3-6 6-4 6-4 vs Arnaldi (rank 35), 5-7 6-2 6-3 vs Sweeny (rank 126).
- Cerundolo's wins this week were by margins of 5 and 1 game, indicating he doesn't blow out opponents.
- Samuel's home advantage and lighter workload could help him keep it close.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonToby Samuel +3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Cerundolo's strong start in recent matches and high first-set conversion rate suggest he is likely to take the opener against a less consistent Samuel.
- Cerundolo has won the first set in both his Eastbourne matches this week, while Samuel lost his only first set against Arnaldi and won it against Tirante.
- Cerundolo's career first-set win conversion is 88%, and he has taken the opening set in 4 of his last 5 matches.
- Samuel's first-set win conversion is 91%, but he has dropped the first set in 3 of his last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJuan Manuel CerundoloEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.20
The read
Given both players' tendency to play three-setters and their competitive styles, a deciding set is a coin-flip possibility.
- Cerundolo has gone to three sets in 3 of his last 5 matches, while Samuel has done so in 4 of his last 5.
- Both players have winning records in deciding sets (Cerundolo 62%, Samuel 51%), indicating they are comfortable in three-setters.
- Cerundolo's recent workload might be a factor, but his fitness has held up in long matches this week.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.20
The read
With both players holding serve reasonably well and having clutch tiebreak records, at least one set is likely to go to a breaker.
- Cerundolo has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 matches, and Samuel in 2 of his last 5.
- Both players have strong tiebreak records: Cerundolo 64% career, Samuel 65%.
- Cerundolo's last two matches both featured tiebreaks, and Samuel's last match had one.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cerundolo's higher double fault rate and the grass surface should lead to a combined total over 5.5, though Samuel's lower rate keeps it from being a high-confidence pick.
- Cerundolo's double fault rate is 3.4% (1174 in 516 matches), and Samuel's is 2.9% (350 in 182 matches).
- In their last matches, Cerundolo had 3 double faults vs Fery and 4 vs Collignon; Samuel had 2 vs Tirante and 3 vs Arnaldi.
- On grass, the lower bounce can lead to more double faults, especially for Cerundolo who has a higher rate.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Samuel's superior ace rate on grass should push the combined total over 8.5, though Cerundolo's low ace count makes this a borderline call.
- Samuel's ace rate is 5.9% (701 aces in 182 matches), while Cerundolo's is 2.9% (988 in 516 matches).
- On grass, Samuel averages around 6-8 aces per match based on his career stats, and Cerundolo around 3-4.
- In their recent matches, Samuel hit 7 aces vs Tirante and 5 vs Arnaldi; Cerundolo hit 4 vs Fery and 3 vs Collignon.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance52%

Toby Samuel

8W 7L

6-1 7-6(7)#54Thiago Agustin Tirante

3-6 6-4 6-4#35Matteo Arnaldi

6-2 6-4#101Quentin Halys

6-0 6-2#118Arthur Fery

5-7 6-2 6-3#126Dane Sweeny

6-3 6-3#141August Holmgren

1-6 7-6(10) 6-4#136Kyrian Jacquet

6-4 6-4 6-2#6Alex De Minaur

5-7 6-1 6-3#175Gonzalo Bueno

5-7 6-3 6-3#240David Goffin

7-6(11) 6-2#105Martin Damm

6-3 2-6 6-4#146Stefanos Sakellaridis

5-7 6-1 6-4#248Raul Brancaccio

4-6 6-3 6-3#172Zsombor Piros

7-6(7) 7-6(2)#174Joel Schwaerzler

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

11W 4L

6-2 7-6(2)#118Arthur Fery

6-4 4-6 7-6(5)#43Raphael Collignon

6-3 7-6(2) 7-6(6)#49Matteo Berrettini

6-4 6-7(7) 7-6(4) 6-7(4) 7-6(8)#58Martin Landaluce

3-6 2-6 7-5 6-1 6-1#1Jannik Sinner

6-2 7-6(0) 7-6(7)#152Jacob Fearnley

5-7 6-1 7-6(4)#43Raphael Collignon

6-2 6-4#101Quentin Halys

6-4 6-4#66Roman Andres Burruchaga

6-2 6-2#105Martin Damm

7-6(2) 6-4#82Luca Van Assche

7-6(2) 7-5#124Cristian Garin

6-2 6-3#35Matteo Arnaldi

6-7(8) 6-4 6-3#180Federico Cina

6-1 6-3#16Luciano Darderi

Toby Samuel

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Over 9.5

Over 2.5

Over 21.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Toby Samuel

Juan Manuel Cerundolo