United KingdomWTA WimbledonFinished

Predictions graded

Polina Kudermetova #116Uzbekistan2Alina Charaeva #120Russia1

Sets 4-6 · 6-4 · 6-1Thu 25 Jun 2026, 12:09 Predictions gradedQ3Grass

Predictions5–363%

Edges4–180%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePolina Kudermetova · 4 places

Polina Kudermetova

Uzbekistan

Reached a career-high No. 54 on 2025-04-14. Public profile sources reviewed here do not clearly state a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #116
Peak ranking: #54 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 172 cm

Alina Charaeva

Russia

Reached a career-high No. 126 on 2026-04-06 and won her first WTA 125 title in Midland in February 2026. Public profile sources reviewed here do not clearly state a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #120
Peak ranking: #126 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Jun 2026, 06:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Polina Kudermetova holds a 2-0 H2H edge and better grass-court credentials, making her the likely winner in a tight Wimbledon qualifying final.

Value bets include Kudermetova to win (1.80, 6.4pt edge), over 21.5 total games (1.80, 9.4pt edge), and Kudermetova 2-1 (4.00, 17pt edge). Avoid Charaeva +3.5 games due to Kudermetova’s potential for comfortable wins.

Context

Kudermetova won 6-3 4-6 6-4 on grass on June 7, 2026.
- She also won 7-5 6-4 on clay in March 2026.
- In the grass meeting, Kudermetova won 73% of first-serve points and saved break points better.
Wimbledon qualifying runs June 23–25, with this match on the third straight day.
- WTA reported 35°C heat and a one-hour stoppage on June 24.
- Both players went to three sets in their previous round, adding to the workload.
Kudermetova’s 2026 grass wins include a victory over world No. 149 Priscilla Hon.
- Charaeva’s two grass losses came against Kudermetova and world No. 221 Ayla Aksu.
- Kudermetova has a career grass win percentage of 58% compared to Charaeva’s 42%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Kudermetova's H2H dominance, superior recent grass form, and higher career grass win percentage give her a clear edge in this qualifying final.
- H2H: Kudermetova leads 2-0, including a 6-3 4-6 6-4 win on grass in June 2026.
- Recent form: Kudermetova 4-1 in last 5, Charaeva 3-2; Kudermetova's last 5 include a win over Charaeva.
- Surface edge: Kudermetova 4-1 on grass in 2026, Charaeva 4-2; Kudermetova's career grass win% 58% vs Charaeva 42%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPolina KudermetovaEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
H2H history and recent match lengths indicate a competitive match likely exceeding 21.5 games.
- H2H matches: 22 and 22 games played.
- Kudermetova's last 5 matches: avg 21.6 total games; Charaeva's last 5: avg 22.4 total games.
- Both players have high deciding-set rates (Kudermetova 56%, Charaeva 58%), suggesting close matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Charaeva has kept matches close against Kudermetova and in recent losses, making +3.5 games a strong cover.
- H2H margins: 3 games and 2 games.
- Charaeva's last 5 losses: all by 3 games or fewer except one 6-game loss.
- Kudermetova's last 5 wins: margins of 9, 2, 3, 3, 6 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAlina Charaeva +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Recent first-set lengths and H2H data suggest the opening set will be competitive and exceed 9.5 games.
- H2H first sets: 9 and 12 games.
- Kudermetova's last 5 first sets: avg 9.6 games; Charaeva's: avg 9.8 games.
- Both players have strong first-set win conversion, indicating tight opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Kudermetova's pattern of starting strong in H2H and her high first-set win conversion rate support her taking the opening set.
- Kudermetova won first set in both H2H meetings.
- Kudermetova's first-set win conversion rate is 90%, Charaeva's is 91% (both strong).
- Kudermetova's recent grass matches: won first set in 3 of last 4.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPolina KudermetovaEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server; their low ace rates suggest a total under 8.5 is likely.
- Kudermetova ace rate: 4.2%, Charaeva: 3.0%.
- H2H: 18 total aces in 2 matches (avg 9 per match, but on slower clay/grass).
- Grass typically increases aces, but both players have low career ace counts.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
High double fault rates in H2H and career stats point to a combined total exceeding 7.5.
- Kudermetova double fault rate: 6.5%, Charaeva: 7.1%.
- H2H: 22 double faults in 2 matches (avg 11 per match).
- Both players have high double fault rates, especially under pressure.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W6-3 4-6 6-4Polina Kudermetova#116vAlina Charaeva#120Jun 7, 2026

W7-5 6-4Polina Kudermetova#116vAlina Charaeva#120Mar 4, 2026

2 total meetings

Polina Kudermetova

11W 4L

6-1 6-2#320Clervie Ngounoue

1-6 6-2 6-3#190Jessika Ponchet

6-0 6-3#22Marie Bouzkova

4-6 6-4 6-3#149Priscilla Hon

6-3 4-6 6-4#120Alina Charaeva

6-3 6-3#86Xiyu Wang

7-6(2) 6-7(5) 6-3#174Viktoriya Tomova

6-1 7-6(5)#160Anouk Koevermans

4-6 6-2 6-4#230Alice Tubello

3-6 7-5 7-5#210Anastasia Gasanova

6-3 6-1#368Cagla Buyukakcay

6-3 0-6 6-1#187Fiona Ferro

6-4 6-4#183Whitney Osuigwe

7-6(4) 6-4#127Lucia Bronzetti

5-7 6-4 6-4#181Guiomar Zuleta De Reales

Alina Charaeva

10W 5L

5-7 6-4 6-0#242Caroline Werner

6-2 6-4#165Elizabeth Mandlik

6-3 6-7(5) 7-6(4)#221Ayla Aksu

5-7 6-2 7-5#168Susan Bandecchi

6-2 6-2#428Anastasia Kulikova

6-0 6-0#296Manon Leonard

6-3 4-6 6-4#116Polina Kudermetova

6-2 7-6(6)#57Talia Gibson

6-2 7-5#30Alexandra Eala

6-3 6-1#195Greetje Minnen

6-4 7-5#163Lucrezia Stefanini

7-6(6) 7-6(6)#47Diane Parry

6-4 6-0#124Aliaksandra Sasnovich

6-4 6-7(3) 7-5#79Tamara Korpatsch

6-4 6-0#45Sara Bejlek