Iryna Shymanovich #216Belarus22 – 1Katherine Sebov #230Canada1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Shymanovich's superior grass form this season and dominant H2H win give her a clear edge, though Sebov's fighting spirit in recent three-setters keeps confidence at medium.

• Shymanovich leads H2H 1-0, winning 6-3 6-1 on clay in Apr 2025 with dominant serve stats (75% 2nd serve win, 56% break conversion).
• Shymanovich's recent grass form: 4-1 in 2026, including two straight-set wins this week; Sebov is 2-0 on grass in 2026 but both wins went three sets against lower-ranked opponents.
• Shymanovich has a higher career win% (65.5% vs 59.3%) and better return points won (48% vs 47%), with a stronger first-set win conversion (88% vs 86%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Sebov's tendency to play long three-setters on grass and both players' moderate serve hold rates point to a match likely surpassing 20.5 games.

• Sebov's two grass wins this week both went three sets with 34 and 27 total games; her last five matches average 22.6 games.
• Shymanovich's last five matches average 21.2 games, with three of five exceeding 20.5 games.
• Both players have similar break point save rates (~54%), suggesting extended games and potential breaks.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83

The read

Sebov's competitive recent matches and the surface shift from clay to grass suggest she can keep this within 3.5 games, even if she loses.

• Sebov's last five matches have all been decided by 4 or fewer games, with an average margin of 3.2 games.
• Shymanovich's last five wins have an average margin of 5.4 games, but against weaker opponents; Sebov is ranked similarly (245 vs 216).
• H2H was a 6-3 6-1 blowout, but on clay; grass should be closer given Sebov's improved grass form.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Recent first-set trends for both players indicate a high likelihood of a closely contested opener exceeding 9.5 games.

• Sebov's last five first sets have averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Shymanovich's last five first sets have averaged 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Both players have similar serve hold rates, suggesting a tight opening set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have very low career ace rates, making it unlikely they combine for more than 5 aces even on grass.

• Shymanovich averages 1.9% ace rate (career 507 aces in 490 matches); Sebov averages 1.2% (389 in 540 matches).
• In their H2H, Sebov hit only 1 ace; Shymanovich's ace count was not recorded but likely low given her rate.
• Grass can increase ace counts, but both players have low ace rates and rely more on rallying.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate double fault rates, and the high-stakes qualifying final could push the total over 7.5.

• Shymanovich has a 4% double fault rate (1090 in 490 matches); Sebov has 3.6% (1154 in 540 matches).
• In their H2H, Sebov had 3 double faults in a straight-set match; Shymanovich's count was not recorded but likely similar.
• Pressure of a Grand Slam qualifying final could increase double faults.