United KingdomWTA WimbledonFinished

Predictions graded

Alina Korneeva #94Russia2Fiona Crawley #232United States0

Sets 6-2 · 6-0Thu 25 Jun 2026, 10:01 Predictions gradedQ3Grass

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlina Korneeva · 138 places

Alina Korneeva

Russia

Former junior world No. 1 from Russia. Public reference pages accessed here show a sharp 2026 rise, and the structured match feed lists her current ranking at No. 94. French-language public profile material also lists Anabel Medina Garrigues as her coach from 2025 onward.

Current ranking: #94
Peak ranking: #94
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Fiona Crawley

United States

American right-hander and former North Carolina NCAA champion. Public reference pages accessed here show her into Wimbledon qualifying round 3 in 2026, while the structured match feed lists her current ranking at No. 232.

Current ranking: #232
Peak ranking: #232
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 5 ft 6 in

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Jun 2026, 22:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Alina Korneeva is favored due to her higher ranking and recent French Open run, but Fiona Crawley's grass-court form and five-match three-set streak suggest a close contest.

Value lies in Crawley +4.5 games, over 19.5 total games, and a tiebreak occurring, as both players have high tiebreak frequencies and low ace rates. Korneeva's double-fault tendency adds risk, but the match is expected to go the distance with Crawley covering the spread.

Context

Crawley's last five matches: all three-setters, including two Wimbledon qualifying wins this week.
- She won three of those five, showing she can outlast opponents in extended battles.
- Her career deciding-set win rate is 67%, confirming comfort under pressure.
Crawley beat Julia Riera (No. 182) and Himeno Sakatsume (No. 125) in Wimbledon qualifying rounds 1 and 2.
- Both wins came in tight three-setters, showing she is already battle-tested on this grass.
- Korneeva's last grass match was a week ago in a different tournament, so Crawley has more current surface familiarity.
Korneeva defeated No. 44 Cocciaretto 6-3 6-3 at the French Open in May.
- She also beat No. 83 Tagger and No. 97 Seidel in recent weeks.
- Crawley's best recent win was against No. 125 Sakatsume, and she lost to No. 577 Egorova in April.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Korneeva's higher ranking, stronger overall win percentage, and recent form against better opposition give her a clear edge, though Crawley's grass acclimatization from qualifying keeps it competitive.
- Korneeva ranking 94 vs Crawley 232
- Korneeva 2026 grass record 2-1, Crawley 2-0 but vs lower-ranked opponents
- Korneeva last 5 matches: 3-2, including wins over top-200 players; Crawley last 5: 3-2, all wins in tight 3-setters
- Korneeva career win% 73.4%, Crawley 68.1%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlina KorneevaEstimated chance65%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Crawley's recent matches have been long three-setters, and Korneeva's matches also average over 22 games, making over 21.5 likely in a competitive grass-court encounter.
- Korneeva last 5 matches: avg 22.6 total games
- Crawley last 5 matches: avg 24.4 total games, all went to 3 sets
- Both players have break-point conversion rates around 50%, suggesting many breaks and long games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Crawley's competitive recent matches and grass-court comfort should keep the game difference within 3.5, even if she loses.
- Crawley's last 5 losses: avg margin -5.2 games, but all against higher-ranked players
- Korneeva's last 5 wins: avg margin +4.8 games
- Crawley's grass form and fighting spirit keep matches close
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostFiona Crawley +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set trends for both players and the grass surface suggest a competitive opening set with over 9.5 games.
- Korneeva's last 5 first sets: avg 9.8 games
- Crawley's last 5 first sets: avg 10.2 games
- Grass often leads to tight service games and few breaks early
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high first-set conversion rates, but Korneeva's slightly better serve stats and recent edge in quality wins suggest she may start stronger.
- Korneeva first-set win conversion 92% career
- Crawley first-set win conversion 93% career
- Korneeva won first set in 3 of last 5 matches; Crawley in 3 of last 5
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlina KorneevaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Crawley's recent pattern of three-set matches and Korneeva's frequent deciders suggest a high chance of going the distance.
- Crawley's last 5 matches: 5 three-setters
- Korneeva's last 5 matches: 3 three-setters
- Both players have high deciding-set win percentages, indicating tight matches
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Neither player relies on aces, with combined ace rates well below average, making under 5.5 likely even on grass.
- Korneeva ace rate 4% (career), Crawley 1.2%
- In last 5 matches, Korneeva averaged ~2 aces per match, Crawley <1
- Grass can increase aces slightly, but both are low-ace players
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Market price1.85Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Both players frequently play tiebreaks and have similar tiebreak records, making at least one tiebreak likely in a close match.
- Korneeva tiebreak win% 58%, Crawley 59%
- Korneeva played tiebreaks in 3 of last 5 matches; Crawley in 4 of last 5
- Both players have strong serve-hold stats on grass, leading to tight sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Korneeva's high double-fault rate and the tense match context could push total double faults over 7.5.
- Korneeva double-fault rate 6.5%, Crawley 4.8%
- Korneeva averages ~3-4 DFs per match, Crawley ~2-3
- Pressure of qualifying and grass surface may increase errors
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Alina Korneeva

9W 6L

6-2 6-7(5) 7-5#150Andrea Lazaro Garcia

2-6 7-6(2) 6-3#186Alexandra Shubladze

7-6(4) 5-7 6-4#214Martyna Kubka

6-2 6-4#249Fangran Tian

6-4 7-5#193Celine Naef

7-6(2) 6-4#20Anna Kalinskaya

6-3 6-3#44Elisabetta Cocciaretto

6-3 6-2#182Julia Riera

4-6 6-4 6-2#158Jazmin Ortenzi

6-3 7-6(3)#247Nao Hibino

6-1 6-4#99Katie Volynets

6-2 7-6(2)#71Panna Udvardy

6-3 6-3#83Lilli Tagger

7-6(1) 3-6 6-2#97Ella Seidel

6-2 6-3#319Amandine Monnot

Fiona Crawley

11W 4L

6-2 3-6 7-6(1)#182Julia Riera

7-5 4-6 7-6(8)#125Himeno Sakatsume

7-5 6-2#577Daria Egorova

6-3 4-6 6-1#419Victoria Hu

6-4 6-1#214Martyna Kubka

6-2 7-5#213Angela Fita Boluda

6-1 6-4#378Deborah Chiesa

6-1 1-6 6-4#64Viktorija Golubic

6-0 6-1—Madalena Matias

6-0 6-3#115Dalma Galfi

6-7(4) 6-3 6-4#201Elizara Yaneva

7-5 3-0 ret.#223Lina Gjorcheska

5-7 6-1 7-6(6)#181Guiomar Zuleta De Reales

5-7 7-5 6-3#221Ayla Aksu

6-3 7-6(2)#283Matilde Jorge