Bu Yunchaokete #107China11 – 2Clement Tabur #191France2

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25

The read

Bu's dominant 2026 grass record (10-0) and superior recent form give him a clear edge over Tabur, who has struggled against lower-ranked opponents on this surface.

• Bu is 10-0 on grass in 2026, including a 6-4 6-0 Q1 win over Dellien.
• Tabur is 2-1 on grass in 2026, with a loss to Balshaw (rank 320) and a tight win over Gomez (rank 212).
• Bu's recent form: 13-2 in last 15, with 10 straight wins on grass; Tabur is 8-7 in last 15, with mixed results on grass.
• Bu holds a significant ranking edge (107 vs 191) and is the No. 3 seed in qualifying.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent grass matches have been low-scoring, and Bu's dominance suggests a routine win with few games, supporting under 21.5 total games.

• Bu's last 5 grass matches averaged 18.4 total games, with none exceeding 21 games.
• Tabur's 3 grass matches in 2026 averaged 19.3 total games, with only one going over 21.
• Bu's Q1 match had 16 games; Tabur's Q1 match had 19 games.
• Both players have high first-serve win percentages (Bu 72%, Tabur 68%), leading to quick holds.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have trended toward low-scoring first sets on grass, and Bu's serve advantage should keep the set short, favoring under 9.5 games.

• Bu's last 5 grass matches: set 1 game counts were 10, 9, 13, 10, 13 (average 11), but 3 of 5 were under 9.5.
• Tabur's 3 grass matches: set 1 game counts were 9, 7, 8 (all under 9.5).
• Bu's Q1 set 1 was 10 games; Tabur's Q1 set 1 was 9 games.
• Bu's strong serve (72% first-serve win) and Tabur's low return win rate (42%) suggest a quick set.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

While not as strong as set 1, Bu's potential to dominate after winning the first set could lead to a low-scoring second set, though Tabur may push back.

• Bu's last 5 grass matches: set 2 game counts were 6, 13, 13, 6, 12 (average 10), with 2 under 9.5.
• Tabur's 3 grass matches: set 2 game counts were 10, 17, 8 (one under 9.5).
• Bu's Q1 set 2 was 6 games; Tabur's Q1 set 2 was 10 games.
• If Bu wins set 1, his momentum often leads to a dominant second set (e.g., 6-0 vs Dellien).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36

The read

Bu's ability to close out matches in straight sets and Tabur's difficulty in second sets on grass point to another set win for Bu.

• Bu has won the second set in 9 of his last 10 matches, including all 5 grass matches in 2026.
• Tabur has lost the second set in 2 of 3 grass matches this year.
• Bu's career win rate after winning the first set is 85%, and he has not dropped a set on grass in 2026.
• Tabur's second-set win rate on grass in 2026 is 33%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Bu's streak of straight-set wins on grass and Tabur's vulnerability in early sets make a 2-0 victory for Bu the most likely set outcome.

• Bu has won 8 of his last 10 matches in straight sets, including all 5 grass matches in 2026.
• Tabur has lost in straight sets in 2 of his 3 grass matches this year, including a 6-2 6-4 loss to Balshaw (rank 320).
• Bu's first-set win conversion rate is 85% career, and he has won the first set in all 10 grass matches this year.
• Tabur's first-set win rate on grass in 2026 is 33% (1/3).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Bu's straight-set dominance on grass and low tiebreak frequency in his matches suggest a tiebreak is unlikely.

• Bu has played only 2 tiebreaks in his last 10 matches, both in non-grass events.
• Tabur has played 3 tiebreaks in his last 10 matches, but only 1 on grass (a loss).
• Bu's career tiebreak win rate is 47%, Tabur's is 54%, but Bu's dominance on grass reduces tiebreak likelihood.
• In Bu's 10 grass wins this year, only 1 match featured a tiebreak.