Tristan Boyer #193United States22 – 0Andrea Pellegrino #131Italy0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.75

The read

Pellegrino's superior recent form against stronger opposition and slightly better grass-court credentials give him a moderate edge over Boyer, whose hard-court preference and limited Wimbledon success reduce his chances.

• Pellegrino has a 1-0 grass record in 2026, while Boyer is 1-1 on grass this year.
• Pellegrino's recent form includes wins over top-20 players (Tiafoe, Fils) and a Rome QF run, indicating higher peak level.
• Boyer's last 5 matches: 3 wins, 2 losses, but all wins came against lower-ranked opponents (avg rank 282).
• H2H: Boyer won 6-3 6-2 on clay in 2024, but that surface advantage is negated on grass.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Given both players' recent match lengths and the likelihood of closely contested sets on grass, the total games are expected to exceed 21.5.

• Boyer's last 5 matches averaged 21.6 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Pellegrino's last 5 matches averaged 24.4 total games, with 4 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Both players have similar serve/return stats, suggesting competitive sets and potential tiebreaks.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The first set is likely to be tight, with both players holding serve effectively, pushing the total games over 9.5.

• Boyer's last 5 first sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Pellegrino's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 66%, limiting easy breaks.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The second set is expected to be competitive, with neither player likely to dominate, leading to a total games over 9.5.

• Boyer's last 5 second sets averaged 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Pellegrino's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Both players have break-point save rates around 58%, indicating resilience on serve.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Pellegrino's superior form and ability to win sets comfortably give him a slight edge to cover a -1.5 game handicap against Boyer.

• Pellegrino's recent wins have often been by margins of 3+ games (e.g., 6-2 7-5, 6-2 6-3).
• Boyer's losses have been by margins of 3+ games in 3 of his last 5 defeats.
• Pellegrino's higher ranking and better recent form suggest he could cover a -1.5 game handicap.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Pellegrino's tendency to start matches strongly, combined with Boyer's occasional slow starts, suggests a slight edge for Pellegrino in the opening set.

• Pellegrino won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches.
• Boyer lost the first set in 2 of his last 5 matches, including against lower-ranked opponents.
• Pellegrino's first-set win conversion rate is 82% career, indicating strong starts.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The serve-oriented nature of grass-court tennis and the players' similar levels increase the likelihood of at least one tiebreak in the match.

• Boyer has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 15 matches.
• Pellegrino has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15 matches.
• Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 52-53%, indicating frequent tiebreak appearances.