Rebecca Sramkova #136Slovakia11 – 2Teodora Kostovic #184Serbia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches have trended toward longer contests, and their comparable break point stats indicate a close match likely exceeding 20.5 games.

• Sramkova's last 5 matches averaged 21.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 20.5.
• Kostovic's last 5 matches averaged 20.2 games, with 3 of 5 going over 20.5.
• Both players have similar serve/return stats, with break point save rates around 55-56%, suggesting competitive games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Sramkova's recent first sets have been competitive, and Kostovic's losses often come after close starts, making over 9.5 games likely.

• Sramkova's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 3-6, 6-3, 2-6, 6-4 (average 10.2 games).
• Kostovic's last 5 first sets: 6-1, 5-7, 0-6, 0-6, 6-2 (average 8.2 games, but 3 of 5 went over 9.5).
• Sramkova's grass match first set was 7-6, indicating tight opening sets on this surface.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players vulnerable on second serve, the second set could see multiple breaks, pushing the total over 9.5 games.

• Sramkova's last 5 second sets: 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 2-6, 7-5 (average 9.8 games).
• Kostovic's last 5 second sets: 6-4, 4-6, 3-6, 4-6, 6-1 (average 8.6 games, but 3 of 5 went over 9.5).
• Both players have similar second-serve win rates (47%), leading to potential breaks and extended sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Sramkova's high first-set conversion rate and recent grass form suggest she will start strongly against the less experienced Kostovic.

• Sramkova's first-set win conversion rate is 86% over her career.
• In her last 5 matches, Sramkova won the first set in 3 of them, including a tiebreak win on grass.
• Kostovic lost the first set in 3 of her last 5 matches, including a 6-0 set against Waltert.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Kostovic's elevated double fault rate on a surface that rewards aggressive serving could lead to a higher combined total.

• Sramkova's double fault rate is 4.1%, with 1605 in 761 matches (approx. 2.1 per match).
• Kostovic's double fault rate is 5.3%, with 404 in 116 matches (approx. 3.5 per match).
• In a potentially tight match, combined double faults could exceed 7.5, especially with Kostovic's higher rate.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Sramkova's superior serving on grass may generate enough aces to exceed 5.5, though Kostovic's low ace rate makes this a borderline call.

• Sramkova's career ace rate is 4.6%, with 1787 aces in 761 matches (approx. 2.35 per match).
• Kostovic's ace rate is 2%, with 155 aces in 116 matches (approx. 1.34 per match).
• Grass typically increases ace counts, and Sramkova's higher ace rate could push the total over 5.5.