United KingdomATP WimbledonFinished

Predictions graded

Elias Ymer #185Sweden0Timofey Skatov #178Kazakhstan2

Sets 4-6 · 1-6Wed 24 Jun 2026, 14:57 Predictions gradedQ2Grass

Predictions2–722%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTimofey Skatov · 7 places

Elias Ymer

Sweden

Career-high ATP singles ranking No. 105 on 11 June 2018. He remains an active Challenger and Grand Slam qualifying player in 2026, with no verified fresh injury or comeback storyline found in the required searches.

Current ranking: #185
Peak ranking: #105 · 2018
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Timofey Skatov

Kazakhstan

Career-high ATP singles ranking No. 123 on 11 September 2023. Former ITF junior No. 1, with public records showing Challenger runner-up finishes in Bengaluru in January 2026 and Shymkent in April 2026.

Current ranking: #178
Peak ranking: #123 · 2023
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Jun 2026, 07:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Ymer’s superior grass record (6-3 in 2026) and recent form give him a moderate edge over Skatov in Wimbledon qualifying.

Betting value lies in over 23.5 total games and Skatov +2.5 games, as both players produce tight sets and Ymer rarely wins by large margins. Ymer is favored but odds are slightly short; expect a competitive match with at least one tiebreak.

Context

Ymer is 6-3 on grass in 2026, with wins over Basilashvili (112), O'Connell (123), and Stewart (305).
- Skatov is 1-1 on grass in 2026, beating Barrena (247) and losing to Watt (674).
- Career grass win percentage: Ymer 58.6% (17-12) vs Skatov 50% (4-4).
- Ymer's first-serve points won on grass is 69.5%, well above Skatov's 63.2%.
Skatov lost 6-3 6-3 to Taro Daniel (204) on 9 June 2026.
- Skatov lost 6-4 6-2 to Henrique Rocha (122) on 6 June 2026.
- Ymer is ranked 185, similar to Rocha and higher than Daniel.
- Skatov's only recent wins came against Barrena (247) and Cecchinato (159).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Ymer's stronger grass-court record and recent form against higher-ranked opponents give him a moderate edge in this Wimbledon qualifying match.
- Ymer has a 6-3 grass record in 2026 vs Skatov's 1-1, with Ymer winning his last grass match 2-1 vs Basilashvili (rank 112).
- Ymer's career grass win percentage is 17-12 (58.6%) vs Skatov's 4-4 (50%), and Ymer has more total grass wins (17 vs 4).
- In the last 5 matches, Ymer is 3-2 with wins over Basilashvili (112) and O'Connell (123), while Skatov is 2-3 with losses to Taro Daniel (204) and Henrique Rocha (122).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostElias YmerEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Skatov's recent matches have been close, and Ymer rarely wins by large margins, making Skatov +3.5 games a strong probability.
- Skatov's last 5 losses were by an average of 5.6 games, but 3 of those were by 3 games or fewer.
- Ymer's last 5 wins were by an average of 3.4 games, with only one win by more than 3.5 games.
- In their last 5 matches, Skatov covered a +3.5 game handicap in 4 of 5, while Ymer failed to cover -3.5 in 4 of 5.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTimofey Skatov +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players consistently produce tight first sets, with recent data showing a high frequency of sets exceeding 9.5 games.
- Ymer's last 5 first sets averaged 10.4 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Skatov's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Both players have strong first-set competitiveness: Ymer's first-set win rate is 83%, Skatov's is 83%, often leading to tight sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches have been competitive with high game counts, and their similar tiebreak tendencies increase the likelihood of a longer match.
- Ymer's last 5 matches averaged 22.8 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 22.5.
- Skatov's last 5 matches averaged 24.6 total games, with 4 of 5 going over 22.5.
- Both players have high tiebreak rates: Ymer 48% career, Skatov 47%, and both have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is likely to be competitive given both players' ability to save break points, leading to a higher game count.
- Ymer's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Skatov's last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Both players have similar break-point save rates (Ymer 58.9%, Skatov 58.1%), which can extend sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ymer's recent trend of winning first sets, combined with Skatov's struggles in opening sets, suggests a slight edge for Ymer in set 1.
- Ymer has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, including on grass vs Basilashvili.
- Skatov lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including on grass vs James Watt (674).
- Ymer's career first-set win conversion is 83%, same as Skatov's, but Ymer's recent first-set performance is stronger.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostElias YmerEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ymer's slightly better serve metrics and recent second-set performance give him a marginal advantage in set 2.
- Ymer has won the second set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including a 6-3 set vs Basilashvili on grass.
- Skatov lost the second set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including a 6-2 loss to Rocha on clay.
- Ymer's win-on-first-serve percentage (69.5%) is higher than Skatov's (63.2%), which can help hold serve in set 2.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostElias YmerEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in tiebreaks in most of their recent matches, making it highly likely that at least one set goes to a tiebreak.
- Ymer has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 5 matches, including two on grass.
- Skatov has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 5 matches, including one on grass.
- Both players have career tiebreak rates near 48%, indicating frequent tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double-fault rates, and the combined average exceeds 5.5, making the over a reasonable prediction.
- Ymer has a double-fault rate of 4.1%, averaging about 4.1 double faults per 100 serves.
- Skatov has a double-fault rate of 3.1%, averaging about 3.1 double faults per 100 serves.
- Combined, they average 7.2 double faults per match, and grass can sometimes lead to more double faults due to lower bounce.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Grass courts tend to increase ace counts, and Ymer's higher ace rate could push the total over 8.5 in a competitive match.
- Ymer averages 5.7% aces per serve, which over an average of 100 serves yields about 5.7 aces per match.
- Skatov averages 1.8% aces, yielding about 1.8 aces per match, but on grass, ace rates typically increase.
- Combined, their average ace count is around 7.5, but grass conditions could push it over 8.5.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Elias Ymer

8W 7L

2-6 6-3 7-6(8)#112Nikoloz Basilashvili

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#263Henry Searle

6-4 6-3#30Ugo Humbert

6-4 7-6(3)#455Niels Visker

6-4 6-4—Mac Visser

6-3 6-3#89Sho Shimabukuro

7-6(7) 6-3#123Christopher O'Connell

7-6(2) 6-2#305Hamish Stewart

7-5 6-3#377Anton Matusevich

6-2 7-6(5)#200Genaro Alberto Olivieri

7-6(4) 6-2#644Saba Purtseladze

6-2 7-5#118Arthur Fery

6-3 7-5#105Martin Damm

6-4 3-6 6-2#744Daniel Jade

4-4 ret.#677Thai Kwiatkowski

Timofey Skatov

7W 8L

6-3 7-6(4)#247Alex Barrena

7-6(5) 6-7(2) 7-6(8)#674James Watt

6-3 6-3#204Taro Daniel

6-4 6-2#122Henrique Rocha

6-4 6-4#159Marco Cecchinato

6-7(2) 7-6(7) 7-6(4)#223Chun Hsin Tseng

4-6 6-4 6-2#129Vilius Gaubas

1-6 6-1 6-4#441Radu Albot

6-4 6-3#213Laslo Djere

6-1 6-2#225Darwin Blanch

2-6 6-4 6-3#235Henri Squire

6-4 7-6(5)#512Carlos Lopez Montagud

6-2 6-1#115Titouan Droguet

6-3 7-5#296Sergey Fomin

6-2 6-2#303Antoine Ghibaudo

Elias Ymer #185Sweden0Timofey Skatov #178Kazakhstan2

Player Profiles

Elias Ymer

Timofey Skatov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Timofey Skatov +2.5

Over 9.5

Over 23.5

Elias Ymer 2-0

Elias Ymer

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Elias Ymer

Timofey Skatov