Darja Semenistaja #10222 – 1Nao Hibino #247Japan1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Semenistaja's higher ranking, perfect H2H record, and solid grass debut give her a clear edge, though Hibino's experience keeps it competitive.

• H2H: Semenistaja leads 2-0, both wins in straight sets on hard and clay.
• Surface: Semenistaja is 1-0 on grass in 2026, Hibino is 3-2 but with losses to Volynets and Dart.
• Recent form: Semenistaja won her last match 7-6 1-6 7-5, showing resilience; Hibino won 6-2 6-2 but against a lower-ranked opponent.
• Ranking: Semenistaja #102 vs Hibino #247, indicating a clear tier gap.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have shown competitive sets in recent matches, and the H2H history suggests a match likely to exceed 20.5 games.

• Semenistaja's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 games per match.
• Hibino's last 5 matches averaged 18.8 games, but 3 were straight-set wins; her losses averaged 21.3 games.
• H2H matches had 20 and 24 games, both over 20.5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Hibino's experience and the close H2H margins suggest she can keep the match within 3.5 games, even in a loss.

• Semenistaja's last 5 wins: margins of +2, +1, +9, -1, +4 games (avg +3.0).
• Hibino's last 5 losses: margins of -8, -3, -7, -4, -5 (avg -5.4), but against higher-ranked opponents.
• H2H margins: +4 and +3 games for Semenistaja, both within 3.5.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Recent first sets for both players often reach 10+ games, and the H2H trend supports a competitive opening set.

• Semenistaja's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 2-6, 6-3, 2-6, 6-1 (avg 9.8 games).
• Hibino's last 5 first sets: 6-2, 2-6, 4-6, 6-4, 7-6 (avg 9.6 games).
• H2H first sets: 6-4 and 7-5, both over 9.5.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Semenistaja's tendency to start strong and Hibino's recent first-set struggles suggest a slight edge for the higher-ranked player in the opener.

• Semenistaja won the first set in 8 of her last 10 matches.
• Hibino lost the first set in 5 of her last 10 matches.
• Semenistaja's first-set win conversion rate is 90% career, indicating strong starts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Both players have low ace rates, and on grass, while aces may increase slightly, the combined total is likely to stay under 5.5.

• Semenistaja's ace rate: 2.0% (career), averaging ~2 aces per match.
• Hibino's ace rate: 2.6% (career), averaging ~2.5 aces per match.
• H2H: 3 aces for Semenistaja, 6 for Hibino over 2 matches (avg 4.5 total).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Hibino's high double fault rate, especially under pressure, could push the combined total over 7.5 in a competitive match.

• Semenistaja's double fault rate: 2.2% (career), averaging ~3 per match.
• Hibino's double fault rate: 4.1% (career), averaging ~5 per match.
• H2H: 3 double faults for Semenistaja, 4 for Hibino over 2 matches (avg 3.5 total, but Hibino's rate is higher).