Kayla Cross #197Canada00 – 2Mary Stoiana #146United States2

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18

The read

Stoiana's dominant H2H, superior grass-court record, and stronger recent form against better opposition give her a clear edge.

• H2H: Stoiana leads 3-0, all on hard, with two retirements by Cross.
• Surface: Stoiana 5-2 on grass in 2026; Cross 1-2 on grass in 2026, 3-6 career.
• Recent form: Stoiana 8-2 last 10, including wins over top-110 players; Cross 5-5 last 10, losses to players ranked 136+.
• Serve/return: Stoiana holds 61.5% first-serve points won, 47.4% second; Cross 63.4% first, 44.2% second, but Stoiana's return points won (47%) edges Cross (46%).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Moderate probability of a tight second set given both players' ability to hold serve, though Stoiana's edge may shorten it.

• Stoiana's last 5 second sets: 6-3, 6-3, 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 (avg 9.2 games).
• Cross's last 5 second sets: 6-4, 6-1, 7-5, 6-0, 6-3 (avg 8.8 games).
• H2H second sets: 7-6, 2-0 ret. — limited data.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29

The read

Stoiana's high first-set conversion rate and H2H dominance in opening sets make her likely to start strong.

• Stoiana first-set win conversion: 87% career.
• Cross first-set win conversion: 89% career, but recent form shows early deficits vs. higher-ranked opponents.
• H2H: Stoiana won first set in all three meetings (6-1, 7-6, 5-2 ret.).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace rates, and grass hasn't significantly boosted their ace counts historically.

• Cross ace rate: 3.8% (career 612 aces in 257 matches, ~2.4 per match).
• Stoiana ace rate: 1.9% (career 182 aces in 151 matches, ~1.2 per match).
• H2H: 10 total aces in 3 matches (3.3 per match).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Cross's high double-fault rate, especially under pressure from Stoiana's return, should push the total over 7.5.

• Cross double-fault rate: 8.2% (career 1308 DFs in 257 matches, ~5.1 per match).
• Stoiana double-fault rate: 3.9% (career 371 DFs in 151 matches, ~2.5 per match).
• H2H: Cross 19 DFs in 3 matches (6.3 per match); Stoiana 1 DF in 3 matches.