Elizabeth Mandlik vs Alina Charaeva: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Charaeva's superior overall win rate and stronger recent quality wins give her a moderate edge in this grass-court qualifying match.
- Charaeva has a 63.3% career win rate vs Mandlik's 56%
- Charaeva's recent form includes wins over top-100 opponents (Gibson #57, Parry #47) in the last month
- Mandlik's last 5 matches: 2 wins, 3 losses; Charaeva's last 5: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Charaeva's first-set win conversion is 90% vs Mandlik's 85%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlina CharaevaEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches consistently exceed 20.5 games, and their competitive styles on grass suggest a close, extended contest.
- Mandlik's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games
- Charaeva's last 5 matches averaged 22.4 total games
- Both players have a high rate of three-set matches in recent form
- Grass-court matches often feature tight sets with few breaks
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be closely contested given both players' high first-set win percentages and recent set-length trends.
- Mandlik's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games
- Charaeva's last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games
- Both players have strong first-set win rates, indicating competitive opening sets
- Grass-court dynamics often lead to tiebreaks or 7-5 sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Even if one player wins the first set, the second set is likely to remain competitive based on recent set-length data.
- Mandlik's last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games
- Charaeva's last 5 second sets averaged 9.4 games
- Both players have shown resilience in second sets after losing the first
- Grass matches often see momentum shifts leading to extended sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Charaeva's elite first-set conversion rate and recent trend of starting strong give her a clear advantage in the opening set.
- Charaeva's first-set win conversion rate is 90%
- Mandlik's first-set win conversion rate is 85%
- Charaeva has won the first set in 4 of her last 5 matches
- Mandlik has won the first set in 3 of her last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlina CharaevaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of three-set matches in both players' recent form suggests this match is likely to go to a deciding set.
- Mandlik has played 3 three-set matches in her last 5
- Charaeva has played 3 three-set matches in her last 5
- Both players have deciding-set win rates above 50%
- Grass-court matches between evenly matched players often go the distance
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates and the grass surface suggest a moderate likelihood of exceeding 5.5 total aces.
- Charaeva's ace rate is 3.0% vs Mandlik's 2.5%
- Charaeva has 629 career aces in 332 matches (1.9 per match)
- Mandlik has 622 career aces in 384 matches (1.6 per match)
- Grass courts typically increase ace counts
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively high double fault rates, and the stakes of Wimbledon qualifying could push the total over 7.5.
- Charaeva's double fault rate is 7.1% vs Mandlik's 6.6%
- Charaeva averages 4.5 double faults per match (1506 in 332 matches)
- Mandlik averages 4.3 double faults per match (1654 in 384 matches)
- Pressure of Grand Slam qualifying can increase double faults
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The frequency of tiebreaks in recent matches and the grass surface make a tiebreak in this match a coin-flip proposition.
- Charaeva has played 3 tiebreaks in her last 5 matches
- Mandlik has played 2 tiebreaks in her last 5 matches
- Both players have tiebreak win rates near 50%
- Grass-court matches often feature tiebreaks due to serve dominance
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Elizabeth Mandlik #165United States0Alina Charaeva #120Russia2

Player Profiles

Elizabeth Mandlik

Alina Charaeva

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Alina Charaeva

Alina Charaeva

Alina Charaeva 2-1

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Elizabeth Mandlik

Alina Charaeva