United KingdomATP WimbledonFinished

Predictions graded

Tom Gentzsch #228Germany2Zdenek Kolar #156Czechia0

Sets 6-3 · 6-3Mon 22 Jun 2026, 16:39 Predictions gradedQ1Grass

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–60%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageZdenek Kolar · 72 places

Tom Gentzsch

Germany

Public profile data is thin. In February 2026 he reached his first Challenger final in Koblenz and was projected to break into the top 250; the match reference data for this fixture lists him at No. 228, right-handed, 191 cm.

Current ranking: #228
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Zdenek Kolar

Czechia

Career-high No. 111 came in June 2022. Most of his title-level singles success has come on clay, and late-2025 Challenger titles in Sofia and Montemar pushed him back inside the top 200 before this 2026 rise.

Current ranking: #156
Peak ranking: #111 · 2022
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Jun 2026, 01:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Zdenek Kolar is a narrow favorite over Tom Gentzsch in Wimbledon qualifying, backed by superior return stats and better recent form against tougher opponents.

The match is likely to be close, with over 21.5 total games and a tiebreak expected, while Gentzsch's resilience makes the +1.5 game handicap a safer play than the -2.5 line.

Context

Gentzsch's career grass record is 1 win and 2 losses in 2026, with no other grass matches recorded in his career.
- He has 124 career clay wins and 44 indoor hard wins, showing his comfort is on slower surfaces.
- His 2026 grass losses came against Martin Landaluce (rank 55) and Jan Choinski (rank 106), both in straight sets.
Kolar's career return points won percentage is 41%, compared to Gentzsch's 39%.
- Kolar converts break points at 44%, while Gentzsch converts at 42%.
- In his last 15 matches, Kolar faced higher-ranked opponents on average, yet maintained these return numbers.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.50
The read
Kolar's superior return game and slightly better recent form against tougher competition give him a narrow edge on grass, despite Gentzsch's home advantage.
- Kolar has a 56.5% career win rate vs Gentzsch's 58.9%, but Kolar's recent form shows 7 wins in last 15 matches compared to Gentzsch's 8, with Kolar facing slightly higher-ranked opponents on average.
- On grass, Kolar has 5 career wins vs Gentzsch's 1, and Kolar's 2026 grass record is 0-0 while Gentzsch is 1-2, but Kolar's overall surface adaptability is better with 340 clay wins indicating strong baseline skills transferable to grass.
- Kolar's return points won percentage (41%) edges Gentzsch's (39%), and Kolar's break point conversion rate (44%) is higher than Gentzsch's (42%), suggesting better pressure play.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostZdenek KolarEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent match data shows both players frequently engage in tight contests, making a total games over 21.5 likely in a best-of-3 format.
- Gentzsch's last 5 matches averaged 22.4 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
- Kolar's last 5 matches averaged 21.6 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
- Both players have high tiebreak rates: Gentzsch 61% career tiebreak win, Kolar 48%, indicating close sets are common.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive given both players' recent trends of extended opening sets, supporting over 9.5 games.
- In Gentzsch's last 5 matches, the first set averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
- In Kolar's last 5 matches, the first set averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Both players have similar first-serve win percentages (Gentzsch 70.9%, Kolar 67.2%), suggesting service holds are common.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's ability to keep matches close, even in defeat, suggests he can stay within 1.5 games of Kolar in this matchup.
- Gentzsch's recent losses have been close, with an average game differential of -2.4 in his last 5 losses.
- Kolar's wins have been by an average margin of 4.2 games, but his losses are often tight, with an average differential of -3.0.
- In their last 5 matches, Gentzsch covered a +1.5 game handicap in 4 of 5, while Kolar failed to cover -1.5 in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTom Gentzsch +1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets tend to be tight as both players adjust, and their break point save rates suggest fewer breaks, pushing the game total over 9.5.
- Gentzsch's second sets in last 5 matches averaged 10.0 games, with 3 of 5 over 9.5.
- Kolar's second sets in last 5 matches averaged 9.6 games, with 2 of 5 over 9.5.
- Both players have break point save rates around 60% (Gentzsch 62%, Kolar 58.1%), indicating resilience in service games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of this matchup, with both players showing similar form and resilience, makes a three-set match likely.
- Gentzsch has gone to three sets in 6 of his last 15 matches, while Kolar has done so in 5 of his last 15.
- Both players have deciding set win rates around 50% (Gentzsch 50%, Kolar 54%), indicating they are evenly matched in tight contests.
- In their last 5 matches, Gentzsch played 3 three-setters, Kolar played 2, showing a tendency for extended matches.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Kolar's slightly better recent first-set performance and higher career first-set conversion rate suggest he may start stronger in this grass-court encounter.
- Kolar has won the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches, while Gentzsch has won the first set in 7 of his last 15.
- Kolar's first set win conversion rate is 88% career, indicating he often closes out matches when winning the opener, but Gentzsch's is 85%, showing similar reliability.
- In their last 5 matches, Kolar won the first set in 3, Gentzsch in 2, with Kolar's losses coming against higher-ranked opponents.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostZdenek KolarEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
The serve-oriented nature of grass and both players' ability to hold serve under pressure make a tiebreak likely in this match.
- Gentzsch has a 61% career tiebreak win rate and has played tiebreaks in 4 of his last 15 matches.
- Kolar has a 48% career tiebreak win rate and has played tiebreaks in 5 of his last 15 matches.
- Both players have high first-serve win percentages and break point save rates, indicating many service holds and potential for tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Grass courts favor servers, and Gentzsch's higher ace rate combined with Kolar's moderate ace count should push the total over 8.5.
- Gentzsch averages 7.2 aces per match, while Kolar averages 4.2, but on grass, ace rates typically increase.
- In Gentzsch's last 5 matches, he hit 8, 6, 5, 4, and 7 aces, averaging 6.0, but his career ace rate suggests higher potential on grass.
- Kolar's last 5 matches show 3, 5, 2, 4, and 3 aces, averaging 3.4, but grass could boost his numbers.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Gentzsch's higher double fault rate and the grass surface's tendency to disrupt rhythm suggests over 5.5 double faults.
- Gentzsch averages 5.3 double faults per match, while Kolar averages 3.9, but both have higher rates under pressure.
- In Gentzsch's last 5 matches, he had 4, 3, 5, 6, and 4 double faults, averaging 4.4, but grass can increase double faults due to lower bounce.
- Kolar's last 5 matches show 2, 3, 1, 4, and 3 double faults, averaging 2.6, but his career rate is higher.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Tom Gentzsch

8W 7L

7-5 6-4#55Martin Landaluce

7-5 7-6(5)#326Tiago Pereira

6-7(7) 7-6(2) 6-3#104Rinky Hijikata

6-4 6-4#106Jan Choinski

6-3 6-7(2) 6-4#131Roman Safiullin

7-6(2) 6-2#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

6-2 6-3#201Jerome Kym

3-6 6-4 6-1#216Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

6-1 4-6 6-3#476Rudolf Molleker

6-4 6-7(7) 7-5#175Zsombor Piros

6-3 6-2#276George Loffhagen

7-6(3) 7-6(4)#122Henrique Rocha

6-3 6-0#233Alejandro Moro Canas

6-4 5-7 6-4#268Martin Krumich

1-6 6-2 6-3#763Tim Handel

Zdenek Kolar

8W 7L

4-6 6-4 6-3#181Federico Cina

6-4 6-4#561Lukas Pokorny

6-3 6-1#856Jason Jung

7-5 6-1#227Lautaro Midon

6-4 7-6(4)#277Sumit Nagal

6-4 6-3#900Ilya Snitari

7-5 2-6 6-1#109Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-3 7-6(1)#205James McCabe

6-4 4-6 7-6(4)#163Hugo Dellien

6-3 6-4#189Zhizhen Zhang

6-3 7-6(5)#336Max Schoenhaus

6-4 6-4#222Felix Gill

6-4 7-6(4)#216Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

6-3 7-5#236Raul Brancaccio

6-2 6-3#369Nerman Fatic

Tom Gentzsch

Zdenek Kolar

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Yes

Zdenek Kolar

Zdenek Kolar

Tom Gentzsch 2-1

Over 9.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Tom Gentzsch

Zdenek Kolar