Gilles Arnaud Bailly #215Belgium00 – 2Pol Martin Tiffon #220Spain2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95

The read

Tiffon's superior serve metrics and recent form against stronger opposition give him a clear edge on grass, despite both players lacking surface experience.

• Pol Martin Tiffon has 0 career grass matches, but his recent hard-court form (12-4 in 2026) and strong serve stats (ace rate 3.9%, first-serve win 69.1%) translate better to grass than Bailly's.
• Bailly has 0 career grass wins and a low first-serve percentage (62.1%), which is a liability on grass where holding serve is critical.
• Tiffon's last 5 matches: 3-2 with wins over top-200 opponents (Schwaerzler #174, Michelsen #38), while Bailly is 2-3 with losses to lower-ranked players (Thanos #505, Feldbausch #290).
• Tiffon's break-point save rate (58.2%) edges Bailly's (54.6%), crucial in tight grass-court sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The trend of competitive first sets in both players' recent matches suggests a close opener, likely surpassing 9.5 games.

• Tiffon's recent first sets have averaged 9.4 games, with two of his last five going over 9.5.
• Bailly's first sets have been tighter, averaging 9.2 games, with three of his last five exceeding 9.5.
• Grass-court matches often feature tight opening sets as players find their rhythm.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Given the expected competitiveness of the match, the second set is also likely to be closely contested, pushing the total games over 9.5.

• In their last 5 matches, Tiffon's second sets have averaged 9.8 games, Bailly's 9.0, with multiple sets going beyond 9.5.
• If the first set is close, the second set often remains competitive, especially with both players having solid hold percentages.
• No fitness concerns for either player, so a tight second set is likely.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Tiffon's stronger serve and recent trend of starting matches well make him the favorite to take the opening set.

• Tiffon has won the first set in 88% of his career matches when winning the match, indicating strong starts.
• Bailly's first-set win conversion is 89%, but his recent first-set performances have been inconsistent (lost first set in 3 of last 5 matches).
• Tiffon's first-serve win percentage (69.1%) is higher than Bailly's (65%), giving him an early advantage on grass.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Tiffon's strong serve, amplified by grass, should push the total aces over 8.5, with Bailly contributing a few as well.

• Tiffon averages 3.9 aces per match on all surfaces, but on grass his ace rate should increase due to the faster surface.
• Bailly averages 2.3 aces per match, but his serve can produce aces on grass.
• In a best-of-3 match, a combined ace count of 9+ is reasonable given Tiffon's serving prowess.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Tiffon's propensity for double faults, combined with the challenging grass surface, makes over 5.5 double faults a plausible outcome.

• Tiffon has a high double-fault rate (5.1%), averaging over 3 double faults per match.
• Bailly's double-fault rate is 2.5%, but on grass, the pressure to hit spots can increase errors.
• Combined, they could easily exceed 5.5 double faults in a tight match.