ATP MallorcaFinished

Predictions graded

Mikhail Kukushkin #302Kazakhstan0Damir Dzumhur #105Bosnia & Herzegovina2

Sets 2-6 · 1-6Sat 20 Jun 2026, 12:37 Predictions gradedQ1Grass

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDamir Dzumhur · 197 places

Mikhail Kukushkin

Kazakhstan

Career-high No. 39 came in February 2019. ATP's bio lists hard as his favourite surface and notes he ended a six-year Challenger title drought with titles in Manama and Tenerife in 2024.

Current ranking: #302
Peak ranking: #39 · 2019
Current age: 38
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Damir Dzumhur

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Career-high No. 23 came in July 2018. ATP updated his bio on May 22, 2026 and highlights a 6-0 Challenger finals record in 2024, part of the climb that carried him back near the Top 100.

Current ranking: #105
Peak ranking: #23 · 2018
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Jun 2026, 08:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Damir Dzumhur holds a moderate edge over Mikhail Kukushkin in Mallorca qualifying, backed by superior recent form, a higher ranking, and a 4-3 head-to-head lead.

Both players are weak on grass, but Dzumhur’s wins over stronger opponents and Kukushkin’s poor run make Dzumhur the value pick at 2.10 odds. The match is expected to be tight, with over 21.5 total games and Kukushkin +3.5 games offering the best betting angles.

Context

Kukushkin's last 5: 1-4 record, with the lone win over Tianhui Zhang (rank 724) in straight sets.
- In his four losses, he won an average of just 6.8 games per match, including a 6-4 6-3 defeat to Mattia Bellucci on grass.
- He has lost to opponents ranked 74, 166, 109, and 116 in that span, all in straight sets except one three-setter.
In his last 15 matches, Dzumhur has wins over Adrian Mannarino (rank 44) and Mattia Bellucci (rank 74).
- He pushed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (rank 22) to five sets and lost narrowly to Taro Daniel (rank 206) in three.
- His average opponent ranking in the last 15 is around 130, compared to Kukushkin's ~280.
Kukushkin's career grass win percentage is 42% (30-41), while Dzumhur's is 44% (16-20).
- Both have low ace rates (Kukushkin 4.2%, Dzumhur 2.6%) and moderate double fault rates, leading to more return points.
- In their only grass match this season, Kukushkin lost 6-4 6-3 to Bellucci, and Dzumhur lost 6-4 6-4 to Gadamauri.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Dzumhur's superior ranking, better recent form against stronger opponents, and slight H2H edge give him a moderate advantage, though both players are poor on grass.
- Dzumhur leads H2H 4-3, including 3-1 on hard/indoor hard, but no grass meetings; last 3 H2H: Dzumhur 2-1 (2019 ret. win, Kukushkin 7-6 6-2, Kukushkin 7-5 6-2).
- Dzumhur career grass win% 16/125 (12.8%), Kukushkin 30/183 (16.4%); both weak on grass, but Kukushkin slightly better historically.
- Recent form (last 5): Dzumhur 2-3 with wins over Mannarino (rank 44) and Damas (269); Kukushkin 1-4 with only win over Zhang (724).
- Dzumhur ranking 105 vs Kukushkin 302; Dzumhur has faced stronger opposition recently (avg opponent rank ~130 vs Kukushkin ~280).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDamir DzumhurEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Kukushkin has been competitive in most recent matches and H2H, making it likely he will keep the match within 3.5 games even if he loses.
- Kukushkin's last 5 losses: avg game differential -5.2, but 3 of 5 were within 3.5 games.
- Dzumhur's last 5 wins: avg game differential +4.8, but only 2 of 5 covered -3.5.
- H2H: avg game differential 2.1 in Dzumhur's favor, with 5 of 7 matches within 3.5 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMikhail Kukushkin +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
The combination of weak serving on grass and competitive H2H history suggests the first set will be tightly contested, likely exceeding 9.5 games.
- Kukushkin's last 5 first sets: avg 9.6 games; Dzumhur's: avg 10.2 games.
- H2H first sets: avg 9.7 games, with 5 of 7 over 9.5.
- Both players have low first-serve win% on grass, leading to longer sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
With both players having weak serve/return profiles on grass and a history of close H2H matches, the total games are likely to exceed 21.5.
- Kukushkin's last 5 matches: avg total games 20.4; Dzumhur's last 5: avg 22.6.
- H2H matches (Bo3) avg total games: 21.3; 4 of 7 H2H went over 21.5 games.
- Both players have low hold/break stats on grass historically, leading to more games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Historical data and recent form indicate the second set is likely to be competitive, pushing the total games over 9.5.
- Kukushkin's last 5 second sets: avg 9.2 games; Dzumhur's: avg 9.8 games.
- H2H second sets: avg 9.4 games, with 4 of 7 over 9.5.
- Both players tend to have closer second sets after adjusting in the match.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dzumhur's slightly better recent first-set performance and H2H trend give him a marginal edge to take the opening set.
- Dzumhur first set win% in last 15: 53% (8/15); Kukushkin: 40% (6/15).
- Dzumhur has won first set in 3 of last 5 matches; Kukushkin in 2 of last 5.
- H2H: Dzumhur won first set in 4 of 7 meetings.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDamir DzumhurEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server, and their low ace rates on grass make it unlikely they will combine for more than 8 aces.
- Kukushkin ace rate 4.2%, Dzumhur 2.6%; combined avg aces per match ~6.8.
- On grass, both have low ace counts historically; Kukushkin career grass aces per match ~3.5, Dzumhur ~2.0.
- Last 5 matches: Kukushkin avg 3.2 aces, Dzumhur avg 2.4 aces.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 8.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dzumhur's higher double fault rate and the grass surface's tendency to amplify serving errors suggest the total double faults will exceed 5.5.
- Kukushkin double fault rate 1.9%, Dzumhur 3.3%; combined avg double faults per match ~5.2.
- On grass, pressure on second serve can increase double faults; Dzumhur has higher DF rate.
- Last 5 matches: Kukushkin avg 2.0 DFs, Dzumhur avg 3.2 DFs.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With evenly matched players on a surface that favors servers, a tiebreak is a coin-flip possibility, supported by H2H history.
- Kukushkin career tiebreak win% 48%, Dzumhur 50%; both average.
- H2H: 3 of 7 matches featured a tiebreak.
- On grass, tiebreaks are more common due to difficulty breaking serve; both have low break point conversion rates.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

3-4 (7 meetings)

L6-3 1-1 ret.Mikhail Kukushkin#302vDamir Dzumhur#105Nov 8, 2019

W7-6(2) 6-2Mikhail Kukushkin#302vDamir Dzumhur#105Sep 18, 2019

W7-5 6-2Mikhail Kukushkin#302vDamir Dzumhur#105Jul 29, 2019

L6-4 7-6(3)Mikhail Kukushkin#302vDamir Dzumhur#105Feb 14, 2019

L6-7(6) 7-6(3) 6-1Mikhail Kukushkin#302vDamir Dzumhur#105Feb 19, 2018

L4-6 6-1 6-2Mikhail Kukushkin#302vDamir Dzumhur#105Mar 28, 2016

W6-4 1-6 6-2Mikhail Kukushkin#302vDamir Dzumhur#105Jun 15, 2013

7 total meetings

Mikhail Kukushkin

6W 9L

6-4 6-3#74Mattia Bellucci

7-6(8) 6-7(2) 7-6(2)#166Mark Lajal

7-6(4) 6-3#724Tianhui Zhang

6-3 6-3#109Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-3 6-2#116Leandro Riedi

1-6 6-2 6-3#251Pavel Kotov

6-3 7-6(5)#500Blake Ellis

4-6 6-4 6-1#433Jie Cui

6-3 6-3#170Daniil Glinka

6-1 3-6 7-5#377Enrico Dalla Valle

6-1 3-6 6-2#172Roberto Carballes Baena

7-6(4) 6-4#229Edas Butvilas

1-0 ret.#276George Loffhagen

6-3 6-2#100Luca Van Assche

6-3 6-1#193Giulio Zeppieri

Damir Dzumhur

5W 10L

6-4 6-4#260Buvaysar Gadamauri

6-4 4-6 6-3#206Taro Daniel

6-7(2) 6-4 7-5#269Miguel Damas

6-7(3) 6-3 2-6 7-5 6-3#22Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-2 7-6(4)#43Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

6-1 6-7(3) 6-4#479Alejo Sanchez Quilez

6-2 6-1#19Learner Tien

6-4 6-0#44Adrian Mannarino

6-4 3-0 ret.#85Emilio Nava

6-3 6-4#40Tallon Griekspoor

6-2 6-4#74Mattia Bellucci

7-5 6-4#199Vitaliy Sachko

6-2 6-1#61Fabian Marozsan

7-6(8) 6-2#37Alexander Blockx

7-6(4) 7-5#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Mikhail Kukushkin

Damir Dzumhur

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Mikhail Kukushkin +3.5

Over 9.5

Damir Dzumhur

Over 2.5

Over 21.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Mikhail Kukushkin

Damir Dzumhur