Felix Gill #222United Kingdom00 – 2Marco Trungelliti #92Argentina2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00

The read

Trungelliti's superior ranking, recent form against stronger opposition, and comparable grass-court experience give him a moderate edge over Gill in this qualifying match.

• Trungelliti has a career grass win rate of 9-12 (43%), while Gill is 8-11 (42%), but Trungelliti's recent form includes a win over Kyrian Jacquet (rank 145) and a competitive four-set loss to Karen Khachanov (rank 18) at Roland Garros.
• Gill's last 5 matches: 2 wins, 3 losses, with both wins going to deciding sets against lower-ranked opponents; Trungelliti's last 5: 3 wins, 2 losses, including a straight-set win over Abedallah Shelbayh and a three-set win over Pavel Kotov.
• Trungelliti holds a significant ranking edge (92 vs 222) and has a higher career win percentage on all surfaces (58.9% vs 64.1% for Gill, but Trungelliti has played over 1000 matches).
• H2H: Gill won their only meeting 6-0 7-6(4) on clay in 2020, but that was over five years ago and on a different surface, reducing its relevance.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45

The read

Recent match data for both players shows a pattern of high total games, and their competitive styles on grass are likely to produce a match exceeding 21.5 games.

• Gill's last 5 matches have averaged 22.6 total games, with 4 of 5 exceeding 21.5 games.
• Trungelliti's last 5 matches have averaged 22.4 total games, with 3 of 5 exceeding 21.5 games.
• Both players have shown a tendency for tight sets: Gill has played 7 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches, Trungelliti 5 in his last 15.
• Grass-court matches often feature fewer breaks, but both players have break-point conversion rates around 42-45%, indicating potential for extended games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

While the data is less conclusive for the second set, the overall trend of competitive matches suggests a moderate chance of exceeding 9.5 games.

• Gill's last 5 matches have seen the second set average 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Trungelliti's last 5 matches have seen the second set average 9.4 games, with 2 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Both players have similar break-point save rates (around 60%), which can extend sets.
• Grass-court dynamics often lead to tighter second sets as players adjust to the surface.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Trungelliti's slightly better recent first-set record and serving stats suggest he is more likely to take the opening set, though the margin is narrow.

• Trungelliti has won the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, while Gill has won the first set in only 2 of his last 5.
• Gill's first-set win conversion rate is 89% career, but his recent first-set performance has been inconsistent, losing the opener in 3 of his last 5.
• Trungelliti's first-serve win percentage (68%) is slightly higher than Gill's (66.9%), which can be crucial in tight opening sets on grass.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.20

The read

The high frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches and the grass-court dynamics make a tiebreak in this match likely.

• Gill has played a tiebreak in 7 of his last 15 matches (47%), including 3 in his last 5.
• Trungelliti has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15 matches (33%), including 2 in his last 5.
• Both players have tiebreak win percentages above 50% (Gill 61%, Trungelliti 52%), indicating they are comfortable in tiebreaks.
• Grass-court matches often feature tiebreaks due to the difficulty of breaking serve.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The grass surface and both players' serving capabilities suggest a moderate chance of exceeding 8.5 total aces, though neither is a dominant server.

• Trungelliti averages 4.7 aces per match career, while Gill averages 3.5, but on grass, ace rates typically increase.
• In their only H2H, both players hit 2 aces in a straight-set match, but that was on clay.
• Trungelliti's recent matches have seen him hit 3-5 aces per match, while Gill's recent matches show 2-4 aces.
• Grass courts favor servers, and both players have first-serve percentages around 58-63%, which can lead to more aces.