Susan Bandecchi #173Switzerland11 – 2Alina Charaeva #128Russia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Charaeva's superior recent form, lighter workload this week, and better return stats give her a slight edge on hard court.

• Charaeva has won 14 of her last 15 matches on clay/hard, with dominant straight-set wins in Figueira da Foz (6-0 6-0 vs Leonard, 6-2 6-2 vs Kulikova).
• Bandecchi needed three sets in both her Figueira da Foz matches, indicating a heavier workload and less dominance.
• Charaeva's return points won (48% career) and break point conversion (50%) edge Bandecchi's 45% and 45.5% respectively.
• H2H is 2-1 Bandecchi, but Charaeva won their most recent meeting in 2023, and both have evolved since.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90

The read

Bandecchi's tendency for three-setters and competitive H2H history suggest a match exceeding 21.5 games.

• Bandecchi's last 5 matches averaged 24.6 games, with three-setters in 4 of those.
• Charaeva's recent matches have been shorter, but against stronger opponents (Kasatkina, Parry) she played 22+ games.
• H2H matches have averaged 22.3 games, with two going three sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90

The read

Despite Charaeva's quick starts, Bandecchi's ability to keep sets competitive pushes the first set over 9.5 games.

• Bandecchi's last 5 first sets: 4-6, 2-6, 5-7, 6-4, 6-1 — averaging 9.4 games, with 3 over 9.5.
• Charaeva's last 5 first sets: 6-2, 6-0, 3-6, 6-2, 2-6 — averaging 8.2 games, but against Bandecchi's resilience, a tighter set is likely.
• H2H first sets: 4-6, 3-6, 6-4 — all over 9.5 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Bandecchi's three-set habit and competitive H2H suggest a high chance of a deciding set.

• Bandecchi has played three sets in 4 of her last 5 matches.
• Charaeva has played three sets in 2 of her last 5, but against top-100 opponents she often goes the distance.
• H2H: 2 of 3 matches went three sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Charaeva's serving inconsistency and high H2H double fault counts make over 7.5 likely.

• Charaeva has a high double fault rate of 7.1% (career), with 15 double faults in 3 H2H matches.
• Bandecchi's double fault rate is 4.1%, with 13 double faults in H2H.
• Combined H2H average: 9.3 double faults per match.