Arthur Fery #140United Kingdom11 – 2Francisco Cerundolo #27Argentina2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Cerundolo's higher ranking, strong 2026 grass form, and recent wins over top-75 opponents give him a clear edge over Fery, despite Fery's home confidence.

• Cerundolo career grass win%: 11-10 (52.4%), Fery: 20-20 (50%)
• Cerundolo 2026 grass: 2-0, Fery 2026 grass: 5-1
• Cerundolo last 5 matches: 3-2, Fery last 5: 4-1
• Cerundolo ranking: 27, Fery: 140

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players are holding serve well on grass and have shown resilience in recent matches, making a close contest with over 21.5 games likely.

• Fery last 5 Bo3 matches: avg total games 22.6
• Cerundolo last 5 Bo3 matches: avg total games 20.6
• Both players have high hold/break rates, suggesting tight sets
• H2H: no prior meetings, but both are in-form on grass

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Fery's recent form and home support should keep the match close, making +3.5 games a solid cover even in a straight-set loss.

• Fery last 5 matches: avg game differential +2.2
• Cerundolo last 5 matches: avg game differential +3.4
• Fery has covered +3.5 in 4 of last 5 matches
• Cerundolo's wins often by narrow margins on grass

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

The first set is likely to be tight, with both players holding serve, pushing the total games over 9.5.

• Fery last 5 set1 games: 10, 8, 9, 13, 10 (avg 10.0)
• Cerundolo last 5 set1 games: 6, 10, 9, 8, 9 (avg 8.4)
• Both players have strong first-set hold percentages
• Grass surface reduces breaks, extending games

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Cerundolo's superior serve/return stats and experience on grass should allow him to start strong, though Fery's recent first-set success keeps it competitive.

• Cerundolo first-set win% career: 87% conversion when winning first set
• Fery first-set win% career: 90% conversion when winning first set
• Cerundolo last 5 matches: won first set in 3 of 5
• Fery last 5 matches: won first set in 4 of 5

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

On grass, both players' serve styles should produce enough aces to clear 8.5, especially with Fery's higher ace rate.

• Fery ace rate: 5.2%, Cerundolo: 3.3%
• Fery avg aces per match (career): ~3.5, Cerundolo: ~2.3
• Grass surface amplifies ace counts
• Both players have played 2+ matches this week, serving well

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have manageable double fault rates and are in rhythm on grass, making under 5.5 double faults likely.

• Fery double fault rate: 2.6%, Cerundolo: 3.7%
• Fery avg double faults per match: ~2.1, Cerundolo: ~2.5
• Both players have been solid on serve this week
• Grass rewards aggressive serving, reducing double faults

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players holding serve effectively on grass, at least one set is likely to reach a tiebreak.

• Fery tiebreak win%: 49%, Cerundolo: 54%
• Fery last 5 matches: 2 tiebreaks played
• Cerundolo last 5 matches: 2 tiebreaks played
• Grass often leads to tiebreaks due to strong serving