Tallon Griekspoor #4111 – 2Sho Shimabukuro #104Japan2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Recent matches and H2H suggest a competitive contest likely to exceed 22.5 games, with potential for tiebreaks.

• H2H match had 33 games (7-6, 6-7, 6-1).
• Griekspoor last 5 matches: avg 22.6 games per match.
• Shimabukuro last 5 matches: avg 22.4 games per match.
• Both players have tiebreak history: Griekspoor 56% career, Shimabukuro 46%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Tight first sets are common for both, with H2H and recent data pointing to over 9.5 games.

• H2H first set went to tiebreak (13 games).
• Griekspoor last 5 matches: first set avg 9.4 games.
• Shimabukuro last 5 matches: first set avg 9.6 games.
• Both players have strong first-set win conversion, suggesting tight openers.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Shimabukuro's strong grass form suggests he can keep the match close, covering a +3.5 game handicap.

• Shimabukuro's recent grass form: 4-1 in last 5, all on grass.
• Griekspoor's recent form: 2-3, with losses to lower-ranked players.
• H2H was close despite Griekspoor winning.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Both players have shown a tendency for three-setters recently, making over 2.5 sets a plausible outcome.

• H2H went to 3 sets.
• Griekspoor last 5 matches: 3 went to deciding set.
• Shimabukuro last 5 matches: 2 went to deciding set.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Griekspoor's higher ace rate and grass conditions support over 12.5 total aces, though Shimabukuro's lower rate tempers confidence.

• Griekspoor ace rate 8.1%, Shimabukuro 6.5%.
• H2H: Griekspoor 17 aces, Shimabukuro 5 aces in 3 sets.
• Grass surface typically increases ace counts.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Shimabukuro's tendency for double faults, especially under pressure, could push total double faults over 5.5.

• Griekspoor double fault rate 3.9%, Shimabukuro 4.2%.
• H2H: Griekspoor 2 double faults, Shimabukuro 9 double faults.
• Shimabukuro's higher double fault rate in H2H and career.