Raphael Perot #409France22 – 0Robin Bertrand #286France0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38

The read

Perot's strong clay form in 2026 (12-8) and superior career win rate give him a clear edge over Bertrand, who has struggled on clay this season (1-6).

• Perot 12-8 on clay in 2026 vs Bertrand 1-6 on clay in 2026
• Perot 67.3% career win rate vs Bertrand 59.5%
• Perot 48.5% break point conversion vs Bertrand 47.5%
• Perot 59.2% break point save vs Bertrand 55.8%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Recent match data shows a tendency for longer matches when both players are competitive, and neither has a dominant serve to consistently produce short sets.

• Perot's last 5 matches averaged 19.6 games, but 3 of 5 went over 21.5
• Bertrand's last 5 matches averaged 20.4 games, with 3 over 21.5
• Both players have moderate serve/return stats, suggesting competitive games

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Perot's recent first sets have been tight, and Bertrand's low break point save rate (55.8%) could lead to extended games even if Perot wins the set.

• Perot's last 5 first sets: 6-3, 6-4, 7-6, 4-6, 6-4 (avg 9.8 games)
• Bertrand's last 5 first sets: 3-6, 7-5, 6-2, 0-6, 2-6 (avg 8.6 games)
• Both players have break point save rates below 60%, extending games

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

While Perot often closes matches efficiently, Bertrand's ability to push sets (as seen in his 7-5 second set vs Hussey) suggests the second set could exceed 9.5 games.

• Perot's last 5 second sets: 6-2, 6-3, 6-2, 5-7, 6-2 (avg 8.6 games)
• Bertrand's last 5 second sets: 6-2, 3-6, 6-2, 5-7, 4-6 (avg 8.6 games)
• Both players have similar second-set game averages, with potential for tight sets

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Perot's dominant straight-set record in recent matches and Bertrand's frequent straight-set losses make a two-set outcome likely.

• Perot won 8 of last 10 completed matches in straight sets
• Bertrand lost 8 of last 10 matches in straight sets
• Perot 91% first-set win conversion, often closing in two

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45

The read

Perot's high first-set win conversion rate and recent trend of starting strong contrast with Bertrand's frequent early-set losses.

• Perot 91% first-set win conversion vs Bertrand 86%
• Perot won first set in 8 of last 10 completed matches
• Bertrand lost first set in 7 of last 10 matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90

The read

Perot's strong straight-set trend and Bertrand's poor form suggest a 2-0 victory for Perot is the most likely set score.

• Perot won 8 of last 10 completed matches 2-0
• Bertrand lost 8 of last 10 matches 0-2
• Perot's first-set win conversion is 91%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace rates, and on clay, total aces are likely to stay under 7.5 in a best-of-3 match.

• Perot ace rate 3.2%, Bertrand 2.7%
• Perot averages ~3 aces per match, Bertrand ~2.5
• Clay surface reduces ace counts

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Bertrand's high double fault rate (4.1%) and both players' moderate first-serve percentages suggest combined double faults will exceed 5.5.

• Perot double fault rate 2.9%, Bertrand 4.1%
• Bertrand averages ~3.5 double faults per match, Perot ~2.5
• Combined average of ~6 double faults per match