Pedro Martinez Portero vs Daniel Rincon: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Martinez's superior clay pedigree, H2H win, and slightly better serve/return stats give him a clear edge over Rincon in this Bo3 clay match.
- Pedro Martinez Portero leads H2H 1-0, winning 6-3 6-3 on clay in 2023.
- Martinez has a 58.6% career win rate and 373 clay wins vs Rincon's 56.5% and 129 clay wins.
- Martinez's recent form: 7-8 in last 15, but 11-14 on clay in 2026 vs Rincon's 15-8 on clay in 2026.
- Martinez's return points won (42%) and break point conversion (44%) edge Rincon's (41%, 45%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPedro Martinez PorteroEstimated chance72%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of both players' recent matches and clay surface dynamics point to a match exceeding 21.5 games.
- Martinez's last 5 matches averaged 21.6 total games; Rincon's averaged 20.4.
- Both players have similar break point conversion rates (44% vs 45%), suggesting competitive games.
- Clay courts typically produce longer rallies and more games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Martinez's ability to win comfortably against similar opponents supports a -3.5 game handicap.
- Martinez's average games won margin in wins: +5.2; Rincon's average games lost margin in losses: -5.8.
- H2H margin was +6 games for Martinez.
- Martinez's return game and break point stats give him a consistent edge.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostPedro Martinez Portero -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent set 1 trends for both players suggest a competitive opening set likely to exceed 9.5 games.
- Martinez's recent set 1 games: 10, 12, 13, 8, 9 (avg 10.4).
- Rincon's recent set 1 games: 8, 8, 8, 7, 10 (avg 8.2).
- H2H set 1 had 9 games, but both players have shown longer sets recently.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While not a strong trend, the potential for a tight second set on clay supports a slight lean toward over 9.5 games.
- Martinez's recent set 2 games: 7, 7, 11, 12, 9 (avg 9.2).
- Rincon's recent set 2 games: 8, 10, 6, 8, 9 (avg 8.2).
- Clay matches often see extended second sets due to physicality.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Martinez's strong first-set record and H2H dominance suggest he is likely to take the opening set.
- Martinez won the first set in their only H2H meeting 6-3.
- Martinez's first-set win conversion rate is 87% career vs Rincon's 89%.
- Martinez has a higher first-serve win percentage (65%) than Rincon (69%) but better return points won (42% vs 41%).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPedro Martinez PorteroEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Martinez's superiority and the H2H result indicate a likely straight-set victory, keeping total sets under 2.5.
- Martinez has won 2-0 in 5 of his last 10 wins; Rincon has won 2-0 in 6 of his last 10 wins.
- H2H was a straight-set win for Martinez.
- Both players have deciding set win rates around 55-59%, but Martinez's edge suggests a straight-set win.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Martinez's ability to maintain pressure and Rincon's recent inconsistency make Martinez the favorite for set 2.
- Martinez won the second set 6-3 in their H2H match.
- Martinez's break point save rate (58.2%) is slightly better than Rincon's (57.6%).
- Rincon's recent form includes a 6-2 6-2 loss to Dali Blanch, indicating vulnerability.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostPedro Martinez PorteroEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The low frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches and Martinez's edge suggest a tiebreak is unlikely.
- Martinez's tiebreak win rate is 55%; Rincon's is 47%.
- Only 2 of Martinez's last 15 matches featured a tiebreak; 1 of Rincon's last 15.
- H2H had no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server, and their ace rates suggest a low total ace count.
- Martinez's ace rate is 2.3% (career 1157 aces in 812 matches, ~1.4 per match).
- Rincon's ace rate is 5.7% (career 1301 aces in 352 matches, ~3.7 per match).
- Combined average aces per match: ~5.1, well under 8.5.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, and clay rallies may lead to more second serves, pushing the total over 5.5.
- Martinez's double fault rate is 5.2% (career 2692 in 812 matches, ~3.3 per match).
- Rincon's double fault rate is 4.2% (career 963 in 352 matches, ~2.7 per match).
- Combined average double faults: ~6.0, slightly above 5.5.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Pedro Martinez Portero #139Spain0Daniel Rincon #283Spain2

Player Profiles

Pedro Martinez Portero

Daniel Rincon

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Pedro Martinez Portero

Pedro Martinez Portero 2-0

Pedro Martinez Portero

Pedro Martinez Portero

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Pedro Martinez Portero

Daniel Rincon