James Duckworth #79Australia00 – 2Aleksandar Vukic #100Australia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Duckworth's grass-court edge, recent H2H win on this surface, and stronger recent form give him a moderate advantage in this Bo3 qualifying match.

• Duckworth leads H2H 2-2, but won the most recent meeting on grass (2025) 6-3 6-7 6-1.
• Duckworth's grass win rate (52-31 career) is superior to Vukic's (25-21), and he is 1-1 on grass in 2026 with a tight loss to Lehecka.
• Duckworth's recent form (last 5: 3-2) includes a win over Dedura and a close loss to Lehecka, while Vukic (last 5: 2-3) has losses to Collignon and Mpetshi Perricard.
• Duckworth holds a higher career win percentage (59.8% vs 54.3%) and better break point save rate (64.7% vs 62.7%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60

The read

The competitive nature of this matchup, with both players holding serve well on grass, points to a match exceeding 22.5 games.

• Duckworth's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 22.5.
• Vukic's last 5 matches averaged 22.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 22.5.
• Their 2025 grass H2H had 29 games (6-3 6-7 6-1).
• Both players have similar serve/return profiles, suggesting tight sets and potential tiebreaks.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Both players' strong serving on grass and recent first-set trends indicate a likely over 9.5 games in the first set.

• Duckworth's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Vukic's last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• On grass, both players' first-serve win percentages (75%+) often lead to tight sets.
• Their 2025 grass H2H first set had 9 games (6-3), but recent form suggests closer opening sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Similar to the first set, the second set is likely to be closely contested, pushing the total games over 9.5.

• Duckworth's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Vukic's last 5 second sets averaged 10.0 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
• In their 2025 grass H2H, the second set had 13 games (7-6).
• Both players have break point save rates above 62%, extending sets on grass.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Duckworth's strong first-set record and recent grass performance suggest he is likely to start quickly and take the opening set.

• Duckworth's first-set win conversion rate is 85% career, and he won the first set in his last grass match vs Lehecka.
• Vukic's first-set win conversion is 86%, but he has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
• In their 2025 grass H2H, Duckworth won the first set 6-3.
• Duckworth's serve stats (75.3% first-serve win, 53.3% second-serve win) slightly edge Vukic's (73.5%, 51.1%) on grass.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Duckworth's momentum and Vukic's recent second-set struggles give a slight edge, but the margin is thin given similar return stats.

• Duckworth has won the second set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including on grass vs Dedura.
• Vukic has lost the second set in 3 of his last 5 matches, often after competitive first sets.
• In their 2025 grass H2H, Duckworth won the second set 7-6 after dropping the first.
• Duckworth's return points won (36%) matches Vukic's, but his break point conversion (38.4%) is slightly lower than Vukic's (39.1%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The close serving stats and recent tiebreak frequency for both players make a tiebreak in this match likely.

• Duckworth has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 5 matches.
• Vukic has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 matches.
• Their 2025 grass H2H featured a second-set tiebreak.
• Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 53-54%, indicating frequent tiebreaks.