Jan-Lennard Struff #77Germany11 – 2Alexander Bublik #11Kazakhstan2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Big servers on grass with recent H2H history of extended matches point to a high total games count.

• Three of their last four meetings have gone over 22.5 games, including the 47-game RG clash.
• Both players have strong serve stats: Struff 75.3% first-serve points won, Bublik 75.8%, with ace rates above 10%.
• Struff's last three matches all had 22+ games; Bublik's last four completed matches averaged 24.5 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90

The read

Strong serving and tight H2H openers point to a first set with at least 10 games.

• The first set has had 10+ games in 6 of their 8 H2H meetings.
• Struff's last 5 first sets: 8, 12, 12, 13, 7 games; Bublik's: 12, 7, 12, 10, 10.
• On grass, both players' first-set game averages in 2025 were above 9.5.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Bublik's serve and recent tight losses suggest he'll stay within 2.5 games even if Struff wins.

• Bublik has covered +2.5 games in 4 of his last 5 losses, including a 5-game margin vs Struff at RG.
• Struff's last three wins have been by 3, 5, and 6 games, but Bublik's serve keeps matches close.
• On grass, Bublik's 2025 losses were by 2, 4, and 5 games, all within +2.5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20

The read

The H2H trend and both players' recent match lengths strongly favor a three-set battle.

• 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings have gone to a deciding set.
• Struff's last two wins over Bublik were in 4 and 3 sets respectively.
• Bublik has played 3 three-set matches in his last 5, and Struff 2 in his last 5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Strong serving and close H2H history make a tiebreak highly likely in this grass-court matchup.

• At least one tiebreak has occurred in 5 of their 8 H2H matches.
• Both players have tiebreak win rates near 50% (Struff 49%, Bublik 54%).
• On grass, Bublik played 7 tiebreaks in 6 matches in 2025; Struff 4 in 6 matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Two of the tour's biggest servers on a fast grass court should easily surpass 18 aces combined.

• Bublik averages 13.9 aces per 100 serves; Struff 10.3, both well above tour average.
• In their RG meeting, they combined for 28 aces over 4 sets.
• Grass amplifies ace counts: Bublik hit 22 aces in his 2025 Halle SF vs Zverev.