Rio Noguchi #202Japan22 – 1Patrick Brady #868United Kingdom1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Noguchi's superior ranking, greater grass-court experience, and stronger recent form against higher-quality opposition give him a clear edge in this qualifying match.

• Noguchi has 21 career grass wins vs Brady's 10, with a 4-3 record in 2024 and 3-4 in 2023 on grass.
• Noguchi's recent form: 8-7 in last 15, with wins over top-200 opponents (Chidekh, Wong) and competitive losses to higher-ranked players.
• Brady's recent form: 7-8 in last 15, mostly against lower-ranked opponents; his best win was over #220 Herbert.
• Noguchi holds a significant ranking edge (#202 vs #868) and has more experience at Challenger level.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Given both players' tendency for close sets and tiebreaks, and their average match lengths, the total games are likely to exceed 21.5.

• Noguchi's recent matches average 22.3 total games, with 8 of his last 15 going over 21.5.
• Brady's recent matches average 22.1 total games, with 7 of his last 15 going over 21.5.
• Both players have been involved in tight sets, with Noguchi playing 7 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches and Brady playing 5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91

The read

The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players capable of holding serve, pushing the total games over 9.5.

• Noguchi's last 15 first sets average 9.8 games, with 9 of 15 going over 9.5.
• Brady's last 15 first sets average 9.3 games, with 8 of 15 going over 9.5.
• Both players have strong first-set performances, often leading to extended games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Given the frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches and the expected competitiveness, at least one tiebreak is likely.

• Noguchi has played a tiebreak in 7 of his last 15 matches.
• Brady has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15 matches.
• Both players have tiebreak win rates around 50%, indicating close sets are common.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

On grass, both players' serve capabilities could lead to a combined ace count over 8.5, though it's not a strong trend.

• Noguchi averages 2.0 aces per match, but on grass this could increase.
• Brady averages 2.8 aces per match, with a higher ace rate on faster surfaces.
• Grass courts typically produce more aces, and both players have decent serve stats.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate double fault rates, and the grass surface might lead to more service errors, pushing the total over 5.5.

• Noguchi averages 2.7 double faults per match.
• Brady averages 3.5 double faults per match.
• Combined, they average over 6 double faults per match, and pressure on grass could increase errors.