Birmingham - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Arthur Fery #154United Kingdom1Bu Yunchaokete #166China2

Sets 2-6 · 6-3 · 3-6Sat 6 Jun 2026, 16:30 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalGrass

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageArthur Fery · 12 places

Arthur Fery

United Kingdom

Career-high No. 152 came on 2026-02-02, and the structured player card for this match lists him at No. 154. Public profile sources frame him as operating close to peak ranking rather than in a clear decline phase.

Current ranking: #154
Peak ranking: #152 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Bu Yunchaokete

China

Career-high No. 64 came on 2025-04-14, while the structured player card for this match lists him at No. 166. Public profile sources still identify hard court as his strongest surface, so this Birmingham run sits below last year's ranking peak.

Current ranking: #166
Peak ranking: #64 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Jun 2026, 01:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Fery’s grass-court experience and home support give him a narrow edge, but Bu’s fresher legs and strong serve keep it close.

Best betting angles are over 9.5 games in set one and over 2.5 sets, with value against odds that underestimate a tight contest. Avoid Fery straight-set bets due to his recent three-set pattern.

Context

Fery beat Tristan Schoolkate 6-4 3-6 6-3 on June 2.
- He then beat Alex Bolt 6-4 6-7(5) 6-3 on June 4.
- Both matches went the distance, adding physical strain before this match.
Bu beat Lloyd Harris 7-6(5) 1-6 6-1 on June 1, a three-set match.
- He then beat Billy Harris 6-2 6-4 on June 4, a straight-sets win.
- No current fitness concerns are reported for Bu.
Fery's career grass win percentage is 55% (18-15).
- He has won all three matches this week on grass.
- Bu's career grass record is 8-10, and he prefers hard courts.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Fery's superior grass-court record and current 3-0 run at this tournament, combined with a recent H2H win, give him a slight edge over Bu, whose grass experience is limited.
- Fery leads H2H 1-0 on hard court in 2026, winning 6-3 3-6 7-5.
- Fery is 3-0 on grass in 2026, all in this Birmingham tournament.
- Bu has a career grass win rate of 8-10, while Fery is 18-15 on grass.
- Fery's recent form: 4-1 in last 5 matches, all on grass.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostArthur FeryEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in extended matches on grass, and their similar rankings suggest a competitive contest likely to exceed 22.5 games.
- Fery's last 5 matches averaged 24.6 games per match.
- Bu's last 5 matches averaged 22.4 games per match.
- Both players have a high rate of three-set matches recently (Fery 3 of last 5, Bu 2 of last 5).
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
With both players holding serve effectively on grass, the first set is likely to be tight and exceed 9.5 games.
- Fery's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games.
- Bu's last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games.
- Both players have strong serve stats on grass, reducing early breaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Similar to the first set, the second set is expected to be closely contested, with a high likelihood of surpassing 9.5 games.
- Fery's last 5 second sets averaged 10.0 games.
- Bu's last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games.
- Grass-court dynamics often lead to close second sets if the first is competitive.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
The competitive nature of this matchup, with both players showing resilience, makes a deciding set more likely than not.
- Fery's last 5 matches: 3 went to three sets.
- Bu's last 5 matches: 2 went to three sets.
- H2H match in 2026 went to three sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Fery's tendency to start strong, especially on grass, gives him a narrow edge in the first set, though Bu's recent form makes it close.
- Fery has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches.
- Bu has lost the first set in 2 of his last 3 matches against top-200 opponents.
- Fery's first-set win conversion rate is 90% career, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostArthur FeryEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given both players' low double fault rates, the total double faults are likely to stay under 5.5 in a best-of-three match.
- Fery's double fault rate is 2.7%, Bu's is 2.3%.
- Both players have low double fault counts in recent matches.
- Grass rewards aggressive serving, but both are relatively consistent.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The serve-oriented nature of grass and both players' recent tiebreak frequency make at least one tiebreak likely in this match.
- Fery has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- Bu has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- Both players have tiebreak win rates around 45-48%, indicating frequent tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

W6-3 3-6 7-5Arthur Fery#154vBu Yunchaokete#166Mar 17, 2026

L6-3 6-7(8) 4-4 ret.Arthur Fery#154vBu Yunchaokete#166Apr 17, 2024

2 total meetings

Arthur Fery

9W 6L

7-6(7) 6-3#98Rinky Hijikata

6-4 6-7(5) 6-3#152Alex Bolt

6-4 3-6 6-3#123Tristan Schoolkate

7-6(3) 4-6 6-3#140Pedro Martinez Portero

6-2 7-5#191Elias Ymer

5-7 7-6(4) 6-2#101Jan Choinski

6-1 6-4#331Dominic Stricker

3-6 7-5 6-3—Yannick Theodor Alexandrescou

7-5 6-3#210Vitaliy Sachko

6-4 6-3#231Andrea Guerrieri

7-6(6) 4-6 6-4#230Dan Added

6-2 7-6(1)#549Max Hans Rehberg

7-6(4) 6-3#74Valentin Royer

4-6 6-3 6-3#210Vitaliy Sachko

6-1 7-6(4)#79Stefanos Tsitsipas

Bu Yunchaokete

10W 5L

7-5 6-4#157Mark Lajal

6-2 6-4#150Billy Harris

7-6(5) 1-6 6-1#143Lloyd Harris

7-6(4) 7-6(3)#94Emilio Nava

6-2 7-6(2)#188Soon-Woo Kwon

6-1 7-5#389Jie Cui

6-2 6-0#97Adam Walton

6-4 6-3#361Ognjen Milic

6-4 7-5#244Keegan Smith

7-6(2) 7-6(8)#109Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-2 6-3#335Andre Ilagan

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#367Daniel Masur

6-4 6-4#156August Holmgren

3-6 6-3 6-2#120Leandro Riedi

7-5 6-2#152Alex Bolt