Chun Hsin Tseng #181Taiwan11 – 2Timofey Skatov #189Kazakhstan2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65

The read

The competitive H2H history and both players' recent match lengths suggest a tight contest likely to exceed 21.5 games.

• Both H2H matches went over 21.5 games: 7-5 2-6 7-6(6) (33 games) and 6-2 6-3 (17 games, but the latter was a straight-set win).
• Tseng's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 games per match, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Skatov's last 5 matches averaged 21.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Both players have similar break point conversion rates (Tseng 42%, Skatov 44%) and save rates (Tseng 60%, Skatov 58%), indicating competitive service games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

The competitive nature of the matchup and recent first-set trends indicate a likely extended first set with over 9.5 games.

• In their last H2H on clay, the first set went to 7-5 (12 games).
• Tseng's last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Skatov's last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Both players have similar return points won percentages (Tseng 41%, Skatov 42%), suggesting breaks are possible but not dominant.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

With both players showing vulnerability on serve and recent second sets often exceeding 9.5 games, this set is likely to be competitive.

• Tseng's last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Skatov's last 5 second sets averaged 9.2 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• In their clay H2H, the second set had 8 games (2-6), but the overall match was tight.
• Both players have break point save rates below 60%, increasing the likelihood of multiple breaks and a longer set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20

The read

The even matchup and history of close encounters suggest a three-set match is more likely than not.

• Tseng has gone to three sets in 3 of his last 15 matches, while Skatov has done so in 5 of his last 15.
• The H2H on clay went to three sets.
• Both players have deciding set win rates around 53-54%, indicating they are evenly matched in tight contests.
• Tseng's fatigue could lead to a drop in level in one set, but his fighting spirit often forces a decider.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Given both players' low ace rates and the clay surface, the total aces are likely to stay under 5.5.

• Tseng's ace rate is 3.7% (career 1287 aces in 504 matches, ~2.6 per match), and Skatov's is 1.8% (588 aces in 455 matches, ~1.3 per match).
• In their H2H matches, they combined for 3 aces (2 for Tseng, 1 for Skatov).
• Both players rely more on rallying than big serving, with first serve win percentages below 68%.
• Clay surface typically reduces ace counts.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

While both players average around 3 double faults per match, the H2H history shows a higher combined total, making over 7.5 a borderline call.

• Tseng averages 3.4 double faults per match (career 1181 in 504 matches), while Skatov averages 3.2 (1009 in 455 matches).
• In their H2H, they combined for 11 double faults (8 for Tseng, 3 for Skatov).
• Tseng's double fault rate is slightly higher, and under pressure, both can be erratic.
• Recent matches show Tseng with 2-4 double faults per match and Skatov with 1-3.