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Predictions graded

Alice Tubello #226France0Carole Monnet #196France2

Sets 3-6 · 2-6Tue 2 Jun 2026, 11:11 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCarole Monnet · 30 places

Alice Tubello

France

French right-hander, age 25. Public profile references list a career-high singles ranking of No. 219, and her recent schedule has been overwhelmingly clay-based.

Current ranking: #226
Peak ranking: #219
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Carole Monnet

France

French left-hander, age 24. Public profile references list a career-high singles ranking of No. 158, and her recent schedule has mixed ITF and WTA clay events with Roland Garros qualifying.

Current ranking: #196
Peak ranking: #158
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Jun 2026, 08:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Alice Tubello's dominant clay form (23-7 in 2026) and fast starts make her the favorite over Carole Monnet, but the 1.38 odds offer no value.

Better angles include over 7.5 double faults (both average over 4 per match) and under 5.5 aces, reflecting their low-powered serves. Expect a competitive baseline battle that could exceed 20.5 total games.

Context

Tubello is 23-7 on clay in 2026 (76.7% win rate) vs Monnet's 7-9 (43.8%).
- Tubello has won 8 of her last 10 matches, including victories over Rakotomanga Rajaonah (No. 153) and Kudermetova (No. 123).
- Monnet has lost 5 of her last 7 matches, with heavy defeats to Vekic (6-2 6-4) and Kawa (6-1 6-0).
Monnet's career double fault rate is 8.5%, with 2,775 double faults in 521 matches.
- She wins only 42.4% of second-serve points, making her serve attackable.
- Tubello's return points won rate is 50%, which could pressure Monnet into more errors.
Tubello won the first set in 7 of her last 10 matches.
- Monnet lost the first set in 5 of her last 7 matches.
- Tubello's career first-set win conversion rate is 89%, showing she often closes out matches after winning the opener.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Alice Tubello

1.38fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Tubello's superior clay-court form and recent results against stronger opposition give her a clear edge in this Bo3 match.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Alice Tubello

1.38fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Tubello's strong first-set record and Monnet's slow starts give her an edge, but the odds overstate her probability.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Tubello's superior clay-court form and recent results against stronger opposition give her a clear edge in this Bo3 match.
- Tubello is 23-7 on clay in 2026 (76.7% win rate) vs Monnet's 7-9 (43.8%)
- Tubello has won 8 of her last 10 matches, including three-set wins over top-150 opponents
- Monnet has lost 5 of her last 7 matches, with heavy defeats to Vekic and Kawa
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlice TubelloEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match lengths for both players suggest a competitive encounter that could exceed 20 games, even in straight sets.
- Tubello's last 5 matches averaged 21.4 total games
- Monnet's last 5 matches averaged 20.6 total games
- Both players have been involved in multiple three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been competitive in opening sets recently, making a tight first set likely.
- Tubello's last 5 first sets averaged 9.2 games
- Monnet's last 5 first sets averaged 9.0 games
- Only 2 of Tubello's last 10 first sets ended 6-0 or 6-1
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Tubello's tendency to start fast, combined with Monnet's recent slow starts, makes her the favorite to take the opening set.
- Tubello has won the first set in 7 of her last 10 matches
- Monnet has lost the first set in 5 of her last 7 matches
- Tubello's first-set win conversion rate is 89% career, indicating strong starts
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlice TubelloEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates, making a low total ace count highly probable.
- Tubello averages 1.5 aces per match (career ace rate 1.5%)
- Monnet averages 1.8 aces per match (career ace rate 1.8%)
- Neither player relies on aces; combined average is well under 5 per match
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Monnet's high double fault rate, combined with Tubello's moderate rate, makes over 7.5 double faults likely.
- Monnet has a high double fault rate of 8.5% (career), averaging over 4 per match
- Tubello averages 4.2 double faults per match (career rate 4.2%)
- Combined, they average over 8 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance60%

Alice Tubello

10W 5L

6-3 6-2#72Donna Vekic

6-3 6-4#130Alina Charaeva

6-4 4-6 6-0#118Maria Timofeeva

4-6 6-2 6-4#123Polina Kudermetova

6-1 6-1#224Elizara Yaneva

6-0 5-7 7-6(2)#153Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah

7-6(4) 6-3#533Lucie Nguyen Tan

6-1 6-3#245Sada Nahimana

6-2 5-7 7-5#227Laura Pigossi

6-4 6-1#727Merel Hoedt

6-3 6-4#545Valeriya Strakhova

1-6 6-3 6-1#480Nahia Berecoechea

5-7 7-5 6-2#277Darya Astakhova

6-2 6-2#533Lucie Nguyen Tan

6-2 6-3#545Valeriya Strakhova

Carole Monnet

7W 8L

6-0 6-1#114Maja Chwalinska

6-4 4-6 7-6(4)#161Polina Iatcenko

6-4 6-0#68Solana Sierra

6-2 3-6 6-2#102Francesca Jones

6-4 7-6(3)#518Maria Sara Popa

6-4 2-6 3-1 ret.#164Greetje Minnen

6-1 3-6 7-6(6)#208Gabriela Andrea Knutson

6-2 6-4#72Donna Vekic

6-1 6-0#139Katarzyna Kawa

6-4 6-2#139Katarzyna Kawa

6-3 7-6(3)#113Dominika Salkova

6-0 6-3#189Iryna Shymanovich

6-4 6-3#414Lia Karatancheva

6-1 6-0—Selina Atay

6-0 4-6 6-4#158Leyre Romero Gormaz