Thomas Faurel #382France11 – 3Valentin Vacherot #183

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12

The read

Vacherot's elite ranking, superior clay pedigree, and recent top-10 wins on clay give him a decisive edge over the qualifier Faurel.

• Vacherot is ranked #18 vs Faurel #382, a massive gap in class.
• Vacherot has a 65% career win rate and 146 clay wins; Faurel has 57% and 50 clay wins.
• Vacherot's recent form includes wins over top-10 players (De Minaur, Musetti) on clay in April 2026.
• Faurel's best recent win is over #111 Svrcina in qualifying; he lost to #541 Pokorny on clay in May 2026.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Vacherot's ability to close out first sets efficiently and Faurel's low game count in first sets against quality opponents point to under 9.5 games.

• In Vacherot's last 10 first sets on clay, 7 have had 9 or fewer games.
• Faurel's last 5 first sets against top-200 opponents averaged 8.4 games.
• Vacherot's first-set scorelines in recent wins: 6-4, 7-6, 6-3, 7-5, 6-3.
• Faurel has not won more than 4 games in a first set against a top-100 player in his career.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Vacherot's strong first-set record and Faurel's inability to start well against top players make Vacherot a heavy favorite for set 1.

• Vacherot has won the first set in 12 of his last 15 matches.
• Faurel has lost the first set in 7 of his last 15 matches, including to players outside the top 200.
• Vacherot's career first-set win rate is 89% when he wins the match.
• Faurel's first-set win rate against top-100 opponents is 0% in his last 5 attempts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Vacherot's high ace rate in a longer format should push the total aces over 12.5, even with Faurel's low contribution.

• Vacherot averages 6.8 aces per match (career ace rate 6.8%).
• Faurel averages 2.3 aces per match (career ace rate 2.3%).
• In a Bo5 match, Vacherot could serve 15+ aces alone based on his rate.
• Faurel's low ace count adds little, but combined they should clear 12.5.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Scaling both players' double fault rates to a best-of-5 format suggests the total will exceed 7.5.

• Vacherot averages 2.9 double faults per match; Faurel averages 3.0.
• In a Bo5 match, both players could serve 20+ service games combined.
• Faurel's double fault rate is 3.0 per match in Bo3, which scales to ~4.5 in Bo5.
• Vacherot's rate scales to ~4.4 in Bo5, totaling ~8.9 double faults.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

With both players having moderate tiebreak frequencies and the extended format, there's a reasonable chance of at least one tiebreak.

• Vacherot has played a tiebreak in 6 of his last 15 matches.
• Faurel has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 15 matches.
• Vacherot's career tiebreak win rate is 54%; Faurel's is 60%.
• In Bo5, the probability of at least one tiebreak increases with more sets.