Enrico Dalla Valle vs Joel Schwaerzler: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Schwaerzler's higher ranking and stronger quality-of-opposition trend give him a clear edge, supported by his solid clay-court record this season.
- Schwaerzler is ranked #170 vs Dalla Valle's #456, indicating a significant class gap.
- Schwaerzler has a 12-7 clay record in 2026, while Dalla Valle is 20-11 but against weaker opposition.
- Schwaerzler's recent form includes wins over top-200 players (Chidekh #177, Safiullin #141) and competitive losses to top-150 opponents.
- Dalla Valle's recent wins are against players ranked #360-#465, with a retirement loss to #402 Lokoli in the last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJoel SchwaerzlerEstimated chance65%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in tight, extended matches recently, and with Dalla Valle's home-court familiarity, a competitive match with over 21.5 games is likely.
- Dalla Valle's last 5 matches averaged 20.8 games, with 3 of 5 exceeding 21.5 games.
- Schwaerzler's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 games, with 4 of 5 exceeding 21.5 games.
- Both players have competitive recent matches with multiple tiebreaks and three-setters, indicating they can push each other.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of both players' solid serve numbers and competitive recent first sets points to a closely contested opener exceeding 9.5 games.
- In Schwaerzler's last 5 matches, the first set averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Dalla Valle's last 5 first sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Both players have strong first-set win conversion rates, suggesting a tight opening set is probable.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given the expectation of a competitive match, the second set is likely to stay close, though the evidence is slightly weaker than for the first set.
- Schwaerzler's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Dalla Valle's last 5 second sets averaged 9.2 games, with 2 of 5 going over 9.5.
- In matches where the first set is competitive, the second set often remains tight as both players adjust.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Schwaerzler's slightly superior serve metrics and his ability to start strong against better competition suggest he is more likely to take the opening set.
- Schwaerzler has an 88% first-set win conversion rate in his career, identical to Dalla Valle's 88%.
- In his last 5 matches, Schwaerzler won the first set in 3 of 5, while Dalla Valle won the first set in 4 of 5 but against weaker opponents.
- Schwaerzler's first-serve win percentage (69.1%) slightly edges Dalla Valle's (67%), which is critical in tight opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJoel SchwaerzlerEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given the serve-oriented stats and recent history of tiebreaks for both players, there is a solid chance of at least one tiebreak in this match.
- Schwaerzler has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 15 matches, while Dalla Valle has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15.
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages near 50% (Schwaerzler 57%, Dalla Valle 48%), indicating they often reach tiebreaks.
- The competitive nature of the matchup, with both players holding serve well, increases the likelihood of at least one tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With two servers averaging around 5 aces per match, a total over 7.5 is plausible if the match extends, though clay reduces ace counts.
- Schwaerzler averages 5.5 aces per match (ace rate 5.5%), while Dalla Valle averages 5.3 aces per match (ace rate 5.3%).
- In a projected close match with potentially 22+ games, combined aces could exceed 7.5.
- Both players have similar ace rates, and on clay, aces are less frequent but still possible in a longer match.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Enrico Dalla Valle #456Italy1Joel Schwaerzler #170Austria2

Player Profiles

Enrico Dalla Valle

Joel Josef Schwaerzler

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Joel Schwaerzler

Joel Schwaerzler

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 21.5

Game Handicap

Over 9.5

Enrico Dalla Valle

Joel Schwaerzler