Jasmine Paolini vs Dayana Yastremska: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Paolini's dominant H2H and superior clay pedigree give her a structural edge, though Yastremska's recent clay title narrows the gap.
- Paolini leads H2H 6-1, including 2-0 on clay (both in 2023).
- Paolini career clay win% 59.6% vs Yastremska 57.6%; Paolini 2025 clay 13-3, Yastremska 8-5.
- Paolini recent form: 3-3 on clay in 2026, but losses to top-60 players; Yastremska 7-4 on clay in 2026 with Parma title.
- Paolini return points won 46% career vs Yastremska 44%; Paolini break point convert 48% vs 46%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJasmine PaoliniEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H and recent first-set trends strongly support a competitive opening set with over 9.5 games.
- H2H: 5 of 7 first sets had 10+ games.
- Paolini last 5 matches: 4 first sets had 10+ games.
- Yastremska last 5 matches: 3 first sets had 10+ games.
- Both players have first serve win% around 60%, limiting early breaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Yastremska's strong recent clay form and competitive H2H history suggest she will keep the match close, covering a +3.5 game handicap.
- H2H: 5 of 7 matches decided by 4 games or fewer.
- Yastremska recent clay form: 7-4 with all losses by 4 games or fewer.
- Paolini recent clay form: 3-3 with wins by an average margin of 4.3 games.
- Yastremska's Parma title run included straight-set wins over top-50 opponents.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostDayana Yastremska +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Competitive H2H history and recent form indicate a tight match likely exceeding 21.5 total games.
- H2H average total games: 22.4 (excluding retirements).
- Paolini recent matches: 4 of last 5 went over 21.5 games.
- Yastremska recent matches: 3 of last 5 went over 21.5 games.
- Both players have break point save rates around 55%, extending games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moderate evidence from H2H and recent form suggests the second set could also be tight, though less consistently than the first.
- H2H: 4 of 7 second sets had 10+ games.
- Paolini last 5 matches: 3 second sets had 10+ games.
- Yastremska last 5 matches: 3 second sets had 10+ games.
- Both players have similar second serve win% (47%), leading to extended sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Yastremska's high ace rate and consistent ace production in recent matches make over 5.5 total aces likely, even with Paolini's low contribution.
- Yastremska ace rate 4.2% vs Paolini 1.4%.
- H2H: Yastremska averaged 3.6 aces per match, Paolini 0.9.
- Yastremska last 5 matches: 4+ aces in 4 matches.
- Paolini last 5 matches: 0-2 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Yastremska's high double fault rate, combined with Paolini's moderate rate, pushes the total comfortably over 7.5.
- Yastremska double fault rate 6.8% vs Paolini 3.2%.
- H2H: Yastremska averaged 5.0 double faults per match, Paolini 2.6.
- Yastremska last 5 matches: 4+ double faults in 4 matches.
- Paolini last 5 matches: 2-4 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance58%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Jasmine Paolini #13Italy2Dayana Yastremska #45Ukraine0

Player Profiles

Jasmine Paolini

Dayana Yastremska

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Dayana Yastremska +2.5

Over 21.5

Jasmine Paolini 2-0

Jasmine Paolini 2-1

Jasmine Paolini

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Jasmine Paolini

Dayana Yastremska