Sofia Kenin vs Peyton Stearns: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Stearns holds a recent H2H win and a stronger clay pedigree, while Kenin's form has been poor with losses to lower-ranked opponents.
- H2H: Stearns beat Kenin 6-3 6-2 on hard in Jan 2026, winning 86% first-serve points and 60% second-serve points.
- Surface: Stearns has a 61-30 career clay record (67% win rate) vs Kenin's 90-56 (62%); in 2026 clay, Stearns is 4-5, Kenin 2-4.
- Recent form (last 5): Stearns 2-3 with wins over Sakkari (#48) and Boisson (#50); Kenin 1-4 with only win over Krueger (#107).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPeyton StearnsEstimated chance55%

Games0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent match lengths and clay-court dynamics point to a competitive match likely exceeding 20 games.
- Kenin's last 15 matches average 21.5 total games; Stearns' average 21.3.
- On clay in 2026, Kenin's matches average 22.3 games; Stearns' average 20.8.
- Both players have break-point conversion rates near 45-49%, suggesting multiple breaks and extended games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets between these two tend to be tight, with neither player dominating early.
- Kenin's last 15 first sets average 9.7 games; Stearns' average 9.3.
- On clay in 2026, Kenin's first sets average 9.8 games; Stearns' average 9.2.
- Both have first-serve win percentages around 63%, limiting quick breaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets are likely to be competitive given similar serve and return stats, pushing the total over 9.5.
- Kenin's last 15 second sets average 9.5 games; Stearns' average 9.4.
- In their H2H, the second set was 6-2, but overall trends suggest closer sets.
- Both have similar second-serve win rates (46-47%), leading to potential breaks and longer sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kenin's recent losses have been competitive, and she is likely to keep the match within a 3.5-game margin.
- Kenin's last 15 losses: 8 of 10 were by 3 games or fewer; Stearns' wins often tight.
- On clay in 2026, Kenin's average game margin in losses is -3.2; Stearns' wins average +3.8.
- H2H was a 6-3 6-2 loss for Kenin, but current form suggests a closer match.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostSofia Kenin +3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stearns has been more consistent in opening sets recently and won the first set in their prior encounter.
- Kenin's first-set win rate in last 15 matches: 5/15 (33%); Stearns: 8/15 (53%).
- Stearns won first set 6-3 in their only H2H meeting.
- On clay in 2026, Stearns won first set in 3 of 9 matches; Kenin in 2 of 6.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPeyton StearnsEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stearns' high ace count in their previous meeting suggests the total could exceed 5.5 even on clay.
- Stearns averages 2.9 aces per match; Kenin 2.3, but Stearns hit 15 aces in their H2H.
- In their H2H, total aces were 16 (Stearns 15, Kenin 1).
- On clay, ace rates drop, but Stearns' power could still produce 4-5 aces alone.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both players prone to double faults, the total is likely to surpass 6.5 in a competitive match.
- Both average 5.3 double faults per match; Kenin had 4 in H2H, Stearns 1.
- On clay in 2026, Kenin's double-fault rate is 5.3 per match; Stearns' is similar.
- Pressure situations on clay often lead to more double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Sofia Kenin #88United States0Peyton Stearns #78United States2

Player Profiles

Sofia Kenin

Peyton Stearns

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Stearns, P 2-1

Peyton Stearns

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Sofia Kenin

Peyton Stearns