FranceATP Roland GarrosFinished

Predictions graded

James Duckworth #83Australia2Gabriel Diallo #48Canada0

Sets 6-3 · 4-1Sun 24 May 2026, 09:09 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions2–625%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGabriel Diallo · 35 places

James Duckworth

Australia

Reached a career-high No. 46 in January 2022. ATP's bio lists grass as his favourite surface. Earlier career interruptions included multiple surgeries, but no current Roland Garros injury issue surfaced in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #83
Peak ranking: #46 · 2022
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Gabriel Diallo

Canada

Reached a career-high No. 33 in August 2025 after winning his first ATP Tour title at 's-Hertogenbosch. The public sources used here did not clearly state a preferred surface, so the cleaner profile facts are his ranking rise, right-handed baseline profile, and 203 cm frame.

Current ranking: #48
Peak ranking: #33 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 203 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 May 2026, 13:21 · Europe/Bucharest

James Duckworth's strong 2026 clay form (10-4) gives him a clear edge over Gabriel Diallo (1-4 on clay), but Diallo's big serve could keep the match close.

The best betting value lies in the total games over 37.5, as both players have been involved in tight sets and a best-of-five format favors a longer contest.

Context

Duckworth won 10 of 14 clay matches in 2026, with a recent Challenger title (5-0 run) and a tight loss to Djere (rank 238).
- Diallo lost 4 of 5 clay matches in 2026, with his only win against a player outside the top 400, and retired in his most recent outing (April 24).
- Duckworth's last 5 matches include three three-set wins, showing he can grind on clay, while Diallo's last 5 completed matches include three straight-set losses.
Diallo's last match was a retirement on April 24, 2026, after losing the first set 7-5 and trailing 3-3 in the second.
- No matches played since that retirement, meaning a 30-day gap without competitive tennis.
- No public injury update found, but the retirement and subsequent absence raise questions about his physical condition.
Duckworth won 7-6(3), 6-7(3), 6-4 in their last H2H on indoor hard in October 2025.
- The match featured two tiebreaks and a deciding set, indicating a competitive dynamic.
- Duckworth's career deciding-set win rate is 54%, and he has won 3 of his last 5 matches that went the distance.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

James Duckworth

1.40fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%

−11.4ppshort

Duckworth's strong first-set win conversion and Diallo's slow starts suggest Duckworth is likely to win the second set as well.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

James Duckworth

1.30fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Duckworth's strong 2026 clay form (10-4) and Diallo's struggles (1-4) give the Australian a surface-fit edge, while the H2H win last year adds confidence.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Duckworth's strong 2026 clay form (10-4) and Diallo's struggles (1-4) give the Australian a surface-fit edge, while the H2H win last year adds confidence.
- Duckworth is 10-4 on clay in 2026, including a recent Challenger title run (5-0) and a 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 loss to Djere (rank 238) in his last match.
- Diallo is 1-4 on clay in 2026, with his only win coming against a player ranked outside the top 400; he retired in his most recent match (April 24) and has lost four straight on the surface.
- Duckworth leads the H2H 1-1, winning their most recent meeting in three sets on indoor hard in October 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJames DuckworthEstimated chance55%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of both players' first-set game averages and strong serving points to a competitive start, likely exceeding 9.5 games.
- Duckworth's last five first sets have averaged 10.2 games, with four of five going over 9.5 games.
- Diallo's last five first sets have averaged 9.8 games, with three of five going over 9.5 games.
- Both players have strong serving stats, with Duckworth winning 75% of first-serve points and Diallo 73%, suggesting a tight opening set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given the Bo5 format and both players' recent tendency to play close sets, the match is likely to exceed 36.5 games, especially if it goes four or five sets.
- Duckworth's last five matches have averaged 25.6 games per match in best-of-3, with three of five going over 22.5 games.
- Diallo's last five completed matches have averaged 22.8 games, with two of five exceeding 22.5 games.
- Their only previous meeting that went three sets had 32 games, and both players have shown the ability to extend sets in recent form.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 36.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Duckworth's strong recent trend of winning first sets and Diallo's poor start to matches make the Australian the favorite to take the opener.
- Duckworth has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, including on clay.
- Diallo has lost the first set in 4 of his last 5 completed matches.
- Duckworth's career first-set win conversion rate is 85%, indicating he capitalizes on early leads.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJames DuckworthEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given Diallo's serving ability and Duckworth's occasional lapses, the match is likely to go at least four sets, making over 3.5 sets a reasonable outcome.
- Duckworth's last five matches have gone to three sets twice (in best-of-3), showing he can be pushed.
- Diallo's last five completed matches have gone to three sets once, but he has the serve to steal a set.
- In their only three-set H2H, the match went the distance, and both players have deciding-set win percentages above 54%.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches and their strong serving makes a tiebreak likely in this best-of-5 encounter.
- Duckworth has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- Diallo has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 completed matches.
- Both players have career tiebreak win percentages above 54%, indicating they often reach tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are capable of double-digit aces, and in a best-of-5 match on clay, the total is likely to exceed 18.5 given their serving power.
- Diallo averages 10.4 aces per match in his career, with a 67% first-serve percentage.
- Duckworth averages 10.2 aces per match, with a 56.7% first-serve percentage.
- In their H2H meetings, Diallo hit 30 aces in two matches (15 per match), while Duckworth hit 17 (8.5 per match).
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 18.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

W7-6(3) 6-7(3) 6-4James Duckworth#83vGabriel Diallo#48Oct 15, 2025

L6-3 7-6(5)James Duckworth#83vGabriel Diallo#48Aug 6, 2022

2 total meetings

James Duckworth

11W 4L

6-4 3-6 6-3#238Laslo Djere

7-5 7-6(4)#253Edas Butvilas

3-6 7-5 6-3#257Miguel Damas

6-7(7) 7-6(3) 6-2#246Stefano Napolitano

7-6(7) 6-4#422Tibo Colson

4-6 6-3 6-4#298Beibit Zhukayev

6-3 6-2#258Stefan Kozlov

6-4 6-3#218Michael Mmoh

7-6(6) 6-2#171Nicolas Mejia

4-6 6-3 7-6(7)#255Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-2 6-3#298Beibit Zhukayev

6-4 6-3#474Miguel Tobon

6-1 6-1#584Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros

7-6(4) 6-3#255Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

5-7 6-4 6-4#305Marc-Andrea Huesler

Gabriel Diallo

5W 10L

7-5 3-3 ret.#143Elmer Moller

6-1 6-2#3Alexander Zverev

6-1 6-2#207Vitaliy Sachko

6-2 6-3#30Joao Fonseca

6-2 6-2#106Alex Molcan

6-1 6-4#34Ugo Humbert

6-2 7-6(3)#93Yibing Wu

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#5Felix Auger Aliassime

6-7(4) 7-6(1) 6-3#13Andrey Rublev

7-6(5) 6-4#72Mattia Bellucci

7-6(4) 6-3#101Adam Walton

6-4 6-4#6Ben Shelton

3-6 6-1 7-6(4)#413Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

7-6(4) 3-6 7-6(3)#187Gustavo Heide

6-7(1) 6-1 6-4 6-2#3Alexander Zverev