Edas Butvilas vs Alexandre Muller: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Muller's superior ranking, extensive clay experience, and higher first-set conversion rate give him a clear edge over Butvilas, whose 2025 clay struggles raise surface-fit concerns.
- Muller career clay win% 268-190 (58.5%), Butvilas 62-48 (56.4%) but 2-9 on clay in 2025
- Muller 2026 clay: 7-8 vs top-150 opponents; Butvilas 2026 clay: 9-7 vs mostly Challenger/ITF
- Muller ranking 105 vs Butvilas 256, significant level gap
- Muller first-set win conversion 89% career, Butvilas 83%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlexandre MullerEstimated chance65%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Butvilas consistently keeps matches close against similar or slightly better opponents, and Muller rarely blows out opponents, making +3.5 games a solid cover.
- Butvilas lost by >3.5 games in only 2 of last 10 matches (vs Llamas Ruiz and Royer, both top-140)
- Muller won by >3.5 games in only 2 of last 10 matches (vs Alcala Gurri and Cina, both ranked 225+)
- Butvilas competitive even in losses: 10-13, 13-15, 11-13 game margins
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonEdas Butvilas +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Recent match data and clay-court dynamics point to a competitive match with at least 22 games, as both players tend to hold serve at moderate rates.
- Butvilas last 5 matches: avg 22.6 total games; Muller last 5: avg 20.8
- Both players have break-point save rates near 60%, suggesting extended games
- Clay surface typically produces longer rallies and more games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set game totals consistently exceed 9.5, and the surface encourages longer sets, making a tight opener likely.
- Butvilas last 5 first sets: 10, 10, 9, 10, 10 games; Muller: 10, 12, 9, 13, 10
- Both players have first-set tiebreak history (Butvilas 53% career TB win, Muller 51%)
- Clay reduces ace impact, increasing rally length
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in recent matches for both players hover around the 9.5 mark, and with no clear dominance, another tight set is probable.
- Butvilas last 5 second sets: 10, 9, 10, 9, 10 games; Muller: 9, 9, 10, 13, 9
- Both players have similar second-set game averages around 9.5
- No H2H data, but competitive dynamic expected
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Muller's elite first-set conversion rate and experience against higher-level opponents should allow him to start strong against a lower-ranked qualifier.
- Muller first-set win conversion 89% career, Butvilas 83%
- Muller won first set in 3 of last 5 matches; Butvilas in 3 of last 5
- Muller holds serve 66.6% on first, 49.7% on second; Butvilas 70.2%/50.5% but vs weaker returners
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlexandre MullerEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Butvilas's tendency to play three-setters and Muller's strong deciding-set record suggest a possible third set, though not overwhelmingly likely.
- Butvilas deciding-set win% 46%, Muller 65%
- Butvilas last 5 matches: 3 three-setters; Muller: 2 three-setters
- Qualifying match pressure can lead to closer contests
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate ace rates, and clay further suppresses aces, making a total under 8.5 likely in a best-of-3 match.
- Muller ace rate 3.9%, Butvilas 5.8% but on clay rates typically drop
- Muller career aces per match ~2.4, Butvilas ~3.9 but vs lower-level returners
- Clay surface reduces ace counts significantly
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 2 double faults per match, and a tight contest could push the combined total over 5.5.
- Muller double-fault rate 3.4%, Butvilas 3.5%
- Muller career DF per match ~2.1, Butvilas ~2.4
- Pressure of qualifying and clay rallies may increase DF count
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Edas Butvilas #256Lithuania2Alexandre Muller #105France0

Player Profiles

Edas Butvilas

Alexandre Muller

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Edas Butvilas +3.5

Over 21.5

Alexandre Muller

Alexandre Muller

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Edas Butvilas

Alexandre Muller