Smith reached a career-high No. 289 on May 4, 2026. Public stat profiles show most of his best Challenger/ITF work has come on hard courts, where all six reported titles were won.
Ivashka reached a career-high No. 40 in June 2022. January 2025 reporting said he was returning from a long hip-injury layoff and was trying to rebuild rhythm through match volume.
Finished Snapshot
Sets
6-4 · 6-4
Predictions
4W · 4L · 0P
Edges
1W · 0L · 0P
Start here for the short read and the strongest priced leans.
Keegan Smith's superior hard-court record (89.9% win rate) and career-high ranking give him a moderate edge over Ilya Ivashka, who is rebuilding from injury. Smith's strong first-set performances and tiebreak advantage make him the pick, with value on the moneyline at +100. Ivashka's +3.5 game handicap is also worth considering in what should be a tight match.
The match conditions that matter before looking at the prices.
Markets where the model and price are far enough apart.
Market & pick
Implied
Model
Edge
The model view before price and edge filtering.
Market & pick
Model
Low-conviction spots where the price does not justify the risk.
Pre-match flagged 8 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
May 14, 12:00
May 14, 12:04
May 15, 11:33
May 14, 12:04
Analysis updated: May 14, 12:06